Heads up- upcoming Group III base oil shortage

04-01-2026

A suggestion for you DIYers of oil changes.
Go stock up oil now for at least 2 more oil changes for each of your vehicles, things are really going to get bad.
All modern oils take group 3 base oils to make and there is not enough right now. The majority of group 3 base oil production in the world, is currently offline. Middle East (mainly Bahrain, UAE, Qatar) supplies >40% of total US Group III with some months reaching ~55% of imports.
Valvoline and Chevron are probably going to be hurting. Shell’s GTL plant has been hit and a Pennzoil GTL plant in Qatar got hit. Shell and Pennzoil may be toast. Pennzoil may be done with GTL based oils.
Shortages are coming in 6-8 weeks and large price increases.

https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/group-iii-tightens-as-prices-surge-and-supply-constraints-deepen/
https://jobbersworld.com
https://www.fuelsandlubes.com/fl-daily-exclusive-responding-to-ilmas-emergency-request-api-will-announce-emergency-provisional-licensing/

A lot of this from Foxtrot08, tribologist and part owner of a large oil distributer in the US.

04-01-2026

I've got 2 M engines. I've got 30 liters of 10w60 & 5w50 now in the garage as I was just thinking of this the last couple of weeks.

04-01-2026

Reckon there are a few ways to see it.

A rush on oil creates similar circumstances to a rush on the bank.

If we are all driving less due to dumb fuel prices, than one may not need to change their oil as much.

Kind of makes EVs powered by the sun a whole lot more attractive.

04-03-2026

I stocked up on oil and have enough for 2 changes on each car. Trying to be less or a hoarder than during Covid. Still have about 100 rolls of toilet paper left ….

04-04-2026

Walmart Supertech full synthetic, Costco Kirkland full synthetic other private labels will be first to go followed by Pennzoil, Shell, QS, Valvoline

04-04-2026

I did not know the Walmart or Costco brand oil had BMW approval. I usually shop at Walmart for oil but never looked at the back of the Supertech jugs.

04-07-2026

https://ilma.org/ilma-seeks-immediate-relief-amid-group-iii-base-oil-supply-disruptions/

04-08-2026

I purchased a year’s worth of oil for my BMW (OEM, which is Shell oil?) and Subaru (I use LiquiMoly for the Forester, and I don’t know where they get their base oils), just in case. Thanks for the heads up.

If I’m understanding it correctly, it looks like Exxon/Mobil isn’t impacted. From what I can tell, their facility that produces Group III base oils is located in Singapore. So, as long as Exxon/Mobil can keep the crude flowing to Singapore, I imagine Mobil 1 production will continue apace.

04-08-2026

jefe2000 wrote
I purchased a year’s worth of oil for my BMW (OEM, which is Shell oil?) and Subaru (I use LiquiMoly for the Forester, and I don’t know where they get their base oils), just in case. Thanks for the heads up.

If I’m understanding it correctly, it looks like Exxon/Mobil isn’t impacted. From what I can tell, their facility that produces Group III base oils is located in Singapore. So, as long as Exxon/Mobil can keep the crude flowing to Singapore, I imagine Mobil 1 production will continue apace.

BMW did go to Shell, but it's been back with Castrol (BP) for a few years now iirc.

05-01-2026

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/strait-of-hormuz-base-oils-luxury-autos.html

05-05-2026

Mobil just cut off Walmart, so whatever is in the distribution chain and on the shelves is it.

05-06-2026

TboneS54 wrote
I've got 2 M engines. I've got 30 liters of 10w60 & 5w50 now in the garage as I was just thinking of this the last couple of weeks.

10W60 Wow. Does it seem to work well?

05-06-2026

10w60 is what many european performance cars take. But in BMW land, it's the S54, S65, S85 specifically.

05-06-2026

Tejas1836 wrote
Mobil just cut off Walmart, so whatever is in the distribution chain and on the shelves is it.

How many more refineries are around? Singapore and Malaysia? The problem is very little is leaving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Are things changing in Venezuela with Maduro out? I know CITGO had refineries in TX for Venez oil.

The Aussies are in big trouble. They supposedly have oil but they went green and shut down the last refinery.

The trucking companies were telling the AU govt to buy diesel from Russia but the trip is like 12,000 miles and the issues with buying Russian.

05-06-2026

TboneS54 wrote
10w60 is what many european performance cars take. But in BMW land, it's the S54, S65, S85 specifically.

Do any late model cars use 10W60? The most recent BMW to use it was the 2013 M3. I had a 2008 M3 for 10 years, but ran 5W40 once the warranty expired. Thick oil and tight bearing clearances did not make sense to me.

05-06-2026

BMW went to turbos after the S65 era, which requires a lesser engine (focus shifts to cooling and durability to handle turbos), so they went back to the typical 5w30.

10w60 is for extremely high performnce n/a engine like s65 but also non BMWs like Audi R8 or Maserati or Astin Martin v8 vantage.

05-06-2026

I am not sure it is really necessary for the S65, especially with its ridiculously tight factory rod bearing clearances, except maybe on the track. I ran 5W40 in my 2008 M3 with S65 for 6 of the 10 years I owned it and my car was modded and used 8600 rpm. Others ran 5W50. The S85 also used the very tight rod bearing clearance and also had bearing issues. I don’t know much about the S54 or Audi V8 or V10 or Maserati engines so I will not question 10W60 for them.

These days, I am usually going thicker than the factory recommendation since the factory has gone thin for fuel economy. My 2018 M5 specifies 0W30 or 5W30 and I run 5W40.

05-06-2026

I don't think it's too wise to question what the brand suggests you use in the engien they make, and furthermore, at this point in time (17 years owning an s54; 4 years s65), 10w60 has worked great for me in my real life experience. I did move to motul 5w50 when I couldn't get castrol, but the specs were very similar.

05-06-2026

Oh my God, is there enough group 3 oil left? Oh no, what do I do now? Is there enough? Is it all running out? What are we going to do? Oh my God. Group 3 oil is code red. Help us. Someone save us. I need group 3 oil.

05-06-2026

minus.spire wrote
Oh my God, is there enough group 3 oil left? Oh no, what do I do now? Is there enough? Is it all running out? What are we going to do? Oh my God. Group 3 oil is code red. Help us. Someone save us. I need group 3 oil.

All my vehicles are on 1 yr/10k mi changes, so I guess I'll start freaking out next year. :thumbsup:

05-07-2026

TboneS54 wrote
I don't think it's too wise to question what the brand suggests you use in the engien they make, and furthermore, at this point in time (17 years owning an s54; 4 years s65), 10w60 has worked great for me in my real life experience. I did move to motul 5w50 when I couldn't get castrol, but the specs were very similar.

I am comfortable with my decisions, but for those who are not comfortable deviating from factory specs, leave the car stock and do everything just as the factory says. I owned my 2008 M3 for only 10 years and it had only 110k miles on it when I sold it. But the guy I sold it to sold it a few years later with 130k and it was still doing fine. I did change the rod bearings at 60k, but the extra clearance bearings were not available then so I used BMW but sent them to WPC for treatment first. Took me about 12 hours.

10W60 is really thick for the New England winters I drive through. If I lived in a hot climate, I might think differently.

05-07-2026

Tejas1836 wrote
Mobil just cut off Walmart

Ooof, sounds bad. I’d love to read more about this. Can you point me to more info about it?

Garage

1 Series

2 Series

3/4 Series

5 Series

6/M6 Series

7 Series

8/M8 Series

M2

M3/M4

M5

X1/X2

X3/X4

X5/X6

X7/XM

Z4

BMWi

Heads up- upcoming Group III base oil shortage