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Originally Posted by DrVenture
Toyota is doing just that, using expensive solid state on a smaller scale to start. Eventually it will translate to larger scale, then become even cheaper. It is what is already happening. It is also important to note that hybrid sales are rising as EV sales slip. The market is doing its thing. automakers are responding. In absolute terms, any hybrid is substantially more complex than an EV. Any ICE is substantially more complex. If there is a significant breakthrough in battery tech, hybrids may be hard to justify. Or at least drop in market share.
Now that we agree that the whole fire thing is a bit overstated, it can be put to rest. And it didn't even take us three years to get here.
Diversity of engineering requires funding. I've posted only a fraction of what is going on in the transportation engineering ecosystem. The automakers, including Tesla, are not going to take any real chances that destroy shareholder value. Imagine they did and no one would step up to buy at the true price point. Shareholders are screwed, engineers are fired, management is tossed and bankruptcy is announced. Pure research is hard to find these days, much is done at the university level and requires subsidization. Big companies rarely take chances.
Right now though, automakers are diving in. Even if this is just a transition phase, it has brought many good jobs to the marketplace. Seventy years ago, Sunbeam was making toasters that weighed 20 lbs and are all now in a landfill. it doesn't matter because it employed people who went out and bought Chevies and the salesmen's wives bought Wonderbread. All that is gone now and here we are. Was that all for nothing?
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I disagree on the complexity issue. EV with proper thermal management and large batteries are as complex as ICEV. Adding an engine to generate electricity in a series hybrid and removing a planetary gearset transmission that parallel hybrids use is simplification.
An ICE-powered EV series hybrid has all the upside of EV efficiency and all the upside of ICEV recharging simplicity. My opinion is after hanging on an EV forum for over a year now, overall, ICEV are far less complex to own and operate as a complete use case. Add cost in as a factor and I see no advantage to BEV adoption at this point. You can talk about the EV future all you want, but that's not now.
As far as fires go, although both are statistically insignificant, I'll take an ICEV fire over an EV fire in terms of safety and survivability. It's the qualitative aspect of the phenomenon rather than the quantitative. That's been my discussion point all along.