[sarabear]

I've never bought a new car before, so I'm torn between a couple options - new or used. I plan to pay cash. I plan to sell it in Fall 2024. How do I estimate the depreciation for each option to determine how much it would cost me net out of pocket for 3 years of ownership?

Option 1 - I (think) I'm getting a decent deal on a new 2021 X5 custom build from my dealer. Unfortunately their used inventory was minimal so I would need to goto a random dealer or shop online for Option 2 used. Finally, Option 3 is to get a new 2021 X3 with the same specs as the x5, but I'm not sure whether, with depreciation and what I could sell for in 3 years, it would cost me the same amount to get Option 1 vs Option 3.

Option 1: 2021 X5 x-line custom build

Option 2: Used 2019 or 2020 X5:
-In comparing used cars with the same options as my custom build (my required options: premium pckg, parking assist, contour seats, leather), every dealer or online site such as cars.com is advertising these for roughly $58-60K with the same options before taxes. How much should I aim to negotiate below their advertised price? Should I stick to KBB values?

Option 3: New 2021 X3 with same specs as Option 1.
($10K difference between the option 1 X5).

Which would provide the best $ savings over 3 years?