09-09-2020, 11:22 AM | #201 |
Brigadier General
6574
Rep 3,043
Posts |
Juuuuust starting to see things normalise a little, not huge drops but things feel softer than they were a few weeks ago.
Share market is starting to slide, i wonder if confidence is waning? |
Appreciate
0
|
09-09-2020, 12:37 PM | #202 |
Private
37
Rep 65
Posts |
A salesman at one of my local dealerships recently told me that they had been authorized to make unusually generous offers on trade-ins and used purchases just because their inventory was at the lowest level he could ever remember.
|
Appreciate
0
|
09-09-2020, 10:24 PM | #203 |
Colonel
6691
Rep 2,345
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
Local BMW dealer yesterday said car sales are slow. And in the showroom they have an M8 Comp with a "sold" sticker on it. Must be that unit volume is down, but average price is up! The salesman that sold the M8, sold my wife and I our X3. Good for him.
|
Appreciate
0
|
09-10-2020, 08:22 AM | #204 | |
Colonel
1567
Rep 2,665
Posts |
Quote:
__________________
2006 Z4M Coupe - Stromung exhaust, ZHP knob, stubby antenna, clutch delay delete
|
|
Appreciate
3
|
09-11-2020, 08:31 AM | #205 |
Colonel
6691
Rep 2,345
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
From Econoday's commentary on the US CPI released this morning:
"Prices of used vehicle surged 5.4 percent in August, more than compensating for a flat reading for new vehicles and, alone, representing more than 40 percent of the core's increase." The used vehicle market doesn't seem to be headed towards collapse. |
Appreciate
0
|
09-11-2020, 03:26 PM | #206 |
Colonel
6691
Rep 2,345
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
Here is the latest Manheim chart.
|
Appreciate
0
|
09-11-2020, 08:50 PM | #207 |
In the Details
1812
Rep 867
Posts
Drives: Yes
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Texas Hill Country
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 1963 Split Window [0.00]
2022 R8 Quattro Spyder [0.00] 2023 718 Spyder [0.00] 2024 Silverado [0.00] 2024 Grand Highlander [0.00] 2024 Civic Type R [0.00] |
|
Appreciate
1
chassis6690.50 |
09-11-2020, 10:20 PM | #208 | |
Colonel
6691
Rep 2,345
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
Quote:
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
09-12-2020, 08:55 AM | #209 | |
In the Details
1812
Rep 867
Posts
Drives: Yes
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Texas Hill Country
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 1963 Split Window [0.00]
2022 R8 Quattro Spyder [0.00] 2023 718 Spyder [0.00] 2024 Silverado [0.00] 2024 Grand Highlander [0.00] 2024 Civic Type R [0.00] |
Quote:
In the long term everything will return to normal and I do not think there will be any crashing, unless you consider elevated pricing returning to normal pricing a crash, which of course it isn't. A person has to be careful what they believe when they read or see things in the news. The media outlets copy each other's stories and when a person reads three articles that agree they consider it reinforcement rather than really just the same article they read three times, which is really just one idea over and again. What I am saying is, no one writing an article knows when/if something is going to happen. But drama sells and if it takes telling people the sky is falling to sell ads then that's what they will do, everyone wants to be first and everyone wants to be right, but it's all guessing, sometimes the guess is right and sometimes this miss gets swept away by tomorrow's drama. So to have long threads speculating about what will happen or what is happening is a bit of a waste, IMO, when it's all guessing, I think we would all be better served in life to observe what's in front of us and act on that, stay present. If you like more risk, sure, make bets on the future. If you are risk averse, just report on the past. Making decisions based on unemployment rates or other macro metrics seems like a way to simply put your life on hold. Who cares if unemployment is 1% or 20%? I don't. Am I unemployed? That's what I want to know. So if you want to buy a car, buy it today. Work hard, buy now. You only live once, carpe diem, you can't take it with you, begin with the end in mind, work backwards so you can take the steps needed to do or get what you want in this life, don't worry about the rest. If the price is higher today than it was yesterday and you want the car today, pay today's price. Tomorrow it could be higher. And yes, you're going to lose lots of money on your car purchases unless you buy one of a handful of cars that are either really boring or you aren't allowed to drive. Sorry for this post. |
|
09-12-2020, 03:15 PM | #210 |
Brigadier General
6574
Rep 3,043
Posts |
The market SHOULD be collapsing due to catastrophic unemployment. Now, before you all get upset, I realise most of the job losses are at entry level. However, this SHOULD be catastrophic, those consumers SHOULD be spending next to nothing which SHOULD see companies shed professional, well paid staff as sales drop like a stone.
In an unaltered market this would happen, and effectively happened in 2008/9 where you can see from the graphs above, we saw a huge downturn. All I can think of is the huge amount of stimulus money out there that is propping things up and stopping the circle fulfilling itself. |
Appreciate
0
|
09-12-2020, 03:32 PM | #211 | |
In the Details
1812
Rep 867
Posts
Drives: Yes
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Texas Hill Country
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 1963 Split Window [0.00]
2022 R8 Quattro Spyder [0.00] 2023 718 Spyder [0.00] 2024 Silverado [0.00] 2024 Grand Highlander [0.00] 2024 Civic Type R [0.00] |
Quote:
With that said, this is nothing like 2009 where a fraud bubble burst in the housing market that led to massive lender pullback preventing people from "affording" a house or car. What you are seeing here, which is what I am saying, is that all the things that "should" be happening that aren't is because the sky isn't falling and the situation isn't as dire as it is portrayed. Even at the entry level, the jobs haven't disappeared. The jobs are still there, if they aren't back to work today, they will be, and everyone knows it. This is simply a self imposed pause for a group of people until the curve was flattened, which I'm thinking it is at this point. Don't think of it as an empty refrigerator. Think of it more as an Intermittent Fasting. There's still food in the fridge, we just aren't eating it today. |
|
09-12-2020, 06:56 PM | #212 | |
Primo Generalissimo
4701
Rep 4,040
Posts
Drives: All of them
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: DC area
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 2017 Porsche 911 Ca ... [10.00]
2023 BMW M2 [9.00] 2023 Porsche Macan GTS [10.00] 2022 Ford F-250 Tremor [8.50] |
Quote:
|
|
09-12-2020, 08:28 PM | #213 | |
In the Details
1812
Rep 867
Posts
Drives: Yes
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Texas Hill Country
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 1963 Split Window [0.00]
2022 R8 Quattro Spyder [0.00] 2023 718 Spyder [0.00] 2024 Silverado [0.00] 2024 Grand Highlander [0.00] 2024 Civic Type R [0.00] |
Quote:
But the govt is paying people to stay home to flatten the curve, I am not the one who decides when it's flat so I'll just keep my day job. |
|
Appreciate
0
|
09-13-2020, 11:45 AM | #214 |
Colonel
6691
Rep 2,345
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
Folks, the stimulus checks + $600 federal unemployment compensation (both now in the past) totaled less than $1T, closer to $500b. Using 160m as a total workforce, on average each worker received around $3,000. Painting with a broad brush.
@higgs boson and Alfisti is this what you are saying is keeping used vehicle prices as high as they are today? |
Appreciate
0
|
09-13-2020, 01:04 PM | #215 |
Brigadier General
6574
Rep 3,043
Posts |
I'm saying the USA broke all kinds of records for people claiming unemployment a few months ago, blew allrecords cean out the water. It makes ZERO sense that there is no knock on effect unless something is propping up the economy.
You're very smart people in here but i sense you're letting your ideology get int he way of your smarts, clearly, with that many people unemployed, there should be a huge knock on effect of lost jobs among professionals and there for a lack of demand for cinsumer goods. |
Appreciate
0
|
09-13-2020, 08:29 PM | #216 | ||
In the Details
1812
Rep 867
Posts
Drives: Yes
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Texas Hill Country
iTrader: (0)
Garage List 1963 Split Window [0.00]
2022 R8 Quattro Spyder [0.00] 2023 718 Spyder [0.00] 2024 Silverado [0.00] 2024 Grand Highlander [0.00] 2024 Civic Type R [0.00] |
Quote:
Quote:
$600 extra for unemployed people isn't going to cause the auto industry (and real estate industry) to set records. I would bet my paycheck there is NO causation. Even if the extra check WAS the cause, it would insinuate that demand is UP for cars, but it's pretty flat. The supply is LOW for new cars (production delays) which means people are turning to used cars instead, which as part of the cycle, means there are less used cars available. As the cycle continues with fewer fresh (new) vehicles entering the market, prices keep going up. As new inventory levels rise back up so too will supply and demand return to normal curves/levels. |
||
09-13-2020, 10:39 PM | #218 |
Colonel
6691
Rep 2,345
Posts
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße
|
Alfisti You are saying that the US broke all kinds of records for people claiming unemployment. Did I get that right? I agree with you, without equivocation.
Let me ask you again, do you think that $500b in stimulus checks + enhanced unemployment insurance payments are the cause of increased used vehicle prices? Please answer: yes or no. |
Appreciate
0
|
09-14-2020, 07:22 AM | #219 |
Brigadier General
6574
Rep 3,043
Posts |
Increase? No. But they should have dropped.
What I think is happening is the stimulus is enabling folks to at least hang onto what they have, people are not selling cars and houses and are buying enough goods in general to keep professionals employed int heir marketing, advertising, accounting, management etc roles that traditionally get culled once demand drops. The upward pricing is likely a result of new car production cuts. |
Appreciate
0
|
09-14-2020, 09:13 PM | #220 |
Captain
725
Rep 943
Posts
Drives: F30 328i Msport
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: WA
|
here is some nice data to go with this discussion:
https://www.experian.com/content/dam...safm-final.pdf |
Post Reply |
Bookmarks |
|
|