[Chihuahua]

Originally Posted by Quadruple VANOS

Prediction: By 2050 California and the EU will be treating tailpipe emissions like you're emitting asbestos. You can own an ICE vehicle for collecting and display, but you're going to have to make the ICE inoperable. Similar to how people now can own old military equipment but the weapons are inoperable. Same thing.

Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[chad86tsi]

What is going to break first,

1. the grid
2. the belief that there is only one way out of this climate mess, to convert to EV's as fast as possible

It seems the people has chosen option #1

[H2O_Doc]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

What is going to break first,

1. the grid
2. the belief that there is only one way out of this climate mess, to convert to EV's as fast as possible

It seems the people has chosen option #1

"the belief that there is only one way out of this climate mess: to convert to EV's as fast as possible"

This isn't what is believed. At least not by the science and policy Climate community. ICEs and EVs are one piece of the complicated puzzle.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by H2O_Doc

"the belief that there is only one way out of this climate mess: to convert to EV's as fast as possible"

This isn't what is believed. At least not by the science and policy Climate community. ICEs and EVs are one piece of the complicated puzzle.

scientist don't make laws. Laws are what makes things happen (or not happen). Laws are put into effect by politicians and their appointees. They are put into that power by voters (usually).

Science is irrelevant it seems.

[M3WC]

Banning of private jets seems to be getting attention now.

Lets see if the elites pushing the EV deadlines will go along. Highly doubt it.

[G MONEY]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Banning of private jets seems to be getting attention now.

Lets see if the elites pushing the EV deadlines will go along. Highly doubt it.

Lol. Never ever ever!!!

[x622]

Originally Posted by Equilibrandt

Though I disagree with your conclusion about the impracticality of Cali's inane experiment, I genuinely wish more people argued in such a way. I appreciate the back-of-the-envelope calculations, as they actually add something valuable here.

Ask me if we can fix this baseload/infrastructure issue in 15 years; I don't see how not, given we as a state throw more money at such things than most other countries in the world.

People seem to forget that as of sometime in the last year, England has become a net energy exporter due to renewable energy sources. It's all policy. One could argue its due to their congestion tax, public transport, societal view on driving, etc. Regardless, they weren't a power exporter when they were rolling coal, were they? Let's move battery plants, photo-voltaic cell manufacturing, and turbine forging to parts of the midwest and south that need a cash infusion. Current legislation helps pay for that; I'd love to know that my taxes were going toward building a wind turbine blade and the salary of some dude in the south who got replaced by a robotic CNC machine.

20GW is a very large amount of power, it is the equivalent of the entire output of the Three Gorges Dam. The largest NPP in the US is about 50 miles away from me, called Palo Verde and it's nameplate capacity is only 3937MW (3.9GW)...


The largest solar farm in the US is only half a GW;
https://www.solarfeeds.com/mag/solar-farms-in-the-usa/ and it's 13 square kilometers. Keep in mind that that number is nameplate capacity and real amount 22-32% of nameplate.

[Equilibrandt]

Originally Posted by x622

20GW is a very large amount of power, it is the equivalent of the entire output of the Three Gorges Dam. The largest NPP in the US is about 50 miles away from me, called Palo Verde and it's nameplate capacity is only 3937MW (3.9GW)...


The largest solar farm in the US is only half a GW;
https://www.solarfeeds.com/mag/solar-farms-in-the-usa/ and it's 13 square kilometers. Keep in mind that that number is nameplate capacity and real amount 22-32% of nameplate.

I appreciate the info.

Do you genuinely assume that we won't have more efficient photovoltaic solar cells, wind turbines, and dam turbines in 15 years? The rate of tech advancement these days dwarfs that of even five years ago, not to mention the fact that for the next 15 years, we'll be throwing an inordinate amount of money at these exact problems.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Equilibrandt

I appreciate the info.

Do you genuinely assume that we won't have more efficient photovoltaic solar cells, wind turbines, and dam turbines in 15 years? The rate of tech advancement these days dwarfs that of even five years ago, not to mention the fact that for the next 15 years, we'll be throwing an inordinate amount of money at these exact problems.

increasing PV efficiency from 25% to 30-35% in the next 15 years isn't going to make up for the increased demand we are commiting to placing on an already strained grid.

Hydro is actively being targeted for removal due to environmental impact. You can upgrade a turbine some, but the net gains from that while removing generation sources is unlikely to be a net positive over time. This is not a growth area.

Many of the good viable wind farms have already been built or are slated to be built, you will see diminishing gains as the "good sites" are already in use. Wind is also fickle, it's not steady like hydro, nuclear, or carbon. Sometimes it's just not blowing when you need it.

Gains in tech isn't changing the laws of physics. Moores law applies to computer processing speed, not the power grid.

Power generation is mostly a physics issue. You think it's fine when EV's are only >1% of then national fleet. that number is going to change faster than the supply side does. Anyone that grew up in an old house where you never flush the toilet when someone is taking a shower knows how this physics stuff works.

If we actually cared about solving these problems for the sake of conservation and the environment (not just focusing on being politically correct), we'd be coupling these initiatives with policies like setting your thermostat to 80 in the summer, and 60 in the winter. We aren't doing that now are we?

[x622]

Originally Posted by Equilibrandt

I appreciate the info.

Do you genuinely assume that we won't have more efficient photovoltaic solar cells, wind turbines, and dam turbines in 15 years? The rate of tech advancement these days dwarfs that of even five years ago, not to mention the fact that for the next 15 years, we'll be throwing an inordinate amount of money at these exact problems.

Lets think about that shall we?

If you double the power efficiency across the board, that half a gig plant becomes a gig nameplate and lets say realistically adds 250MW worth of baseload.

If you increase the power efficiency by an order of magnitude, all of a sudden that is a 5GW nameplate solarfarm, largest in the world (currently largest is 2.2GW in india, across 14000 acres), which again really only produces about ~1-1.25GW of power on average, but obviously will have 4-4.5GW peaks.

Lets say we built 5 of these new next-generation 10x better solar farms to produce a baseload of approx 5-6GW and peak production approx 20-23GW - Just enough to run these cars, but a small problem, they produce power during the day, or when it's sunny, which just so happens to be peak load.


What does all this ACTUALLY mean? It means that you've swapped out your carbon baseload (LNG/coal etc etc) out for renewables so you can say you've shaved your peaks. You don't have to fire those coal peaker plants anymore to pick up the slack, because guess what all those solar panels produce power during the day, or in other words, during peak load.

None of those panels do shit for you at night, when everyone is going to "charge the tessie". There is no means for real industrial grade energy storage. This is one of the very large issues that has not been solved yet. There is no means to store energy en masse.

It gets crazier too;

How long do these farms take to create? What's the comparable cost to adding 20GW of say LNG? How about Nuclear? Biomass? What's the average cost per kWh? Which do you think has the most expensive cost per kWh?


Did you see them push a ton of bills to rush electrical infrastructure buildouts? Yeah me neither.

[GoneIn4Secs]

dont people realize that mining for raw materials used in these EV batteries causes more pollution than any difference in gasoline burned during the cars life.

fossil fuel cars are actually less net impact on the environment

and with mining you are only empowering dictatorships like china

good job! you've really thunk this through 😑

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by x622

Lets think about that shall we?


Did you see them push a ton of bills to rush electrical infrastructure buildouts? Yeah me neither.

"Build it (load) and they (Power generators) will come", right?

I'm part of the They. Aint happening that fast, not by a long shot. Even if we decided today to make it happen, it won't happen that fast.

flushing a toilet and getting cold water sucks, power brownouts are a lot worse.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by GoneIn4Secs

dont people realize that mining for raw materials used in these EV batteries causes more pollution than any difference in gasoline burned during the cars life.

fossil fuel cars are actually less net impact on the environment

and with mining you are only empowering dictatorships like china

good job! you've really thunk this through ��

No, because mining aluminum shit is hugely energy intensive and just one part of building a car. Equating the continual exploration and pumping of fossil fuels to building a battery gets to be laughable. Just look into how many oil wells have leaked into the Gulf of Mexico for starters, how many continue to do so, wells that leaked continually for years, now think about all the damage done across the entire world to extract this. Leaks is just one facet in a much bigger picture of the environmental impact. I'm not saying don't do it, but being ignorant to the effects and consequences is stupid. Recent article (you can just search for it) also shows EV batteries lasting longer than anticipated, expected throughout the life of the car. I'd argue that extracting the hp/liter out of the current ICE cars dooms the car to not lasting more than 15 years or so before it's junked and the electronics definitely won't last that long. They are just too complex with too many parts that won't be maintained.

There are many more leaks that happen that you never hear about, or at least you don't hear about them in other parts of the country. I can point out a few recently here in AK.

[GoneIn4Secs]

Originally Posted by RM7

No, because mining aluminum shit is hugely energy intensive and just one part of building a car. Equating the continual exploration and pumping of fossil fuels to building a battery gets to be laughable. Just look into how many oil wells have leaked into the Gulf of Mexico for starters, how many continue to do so, wells that leaked continually for years, now think about all the damage done across the entire world to extract this. Leaks is just one facet in a much bigger picture of the environmental impact. I'm not saying don't do it, but being ignorant to the effects and consequences is stupid. Recent article (you can just search for it) also shows EV batteries lasting longer than anticipated, expected throughout the life of the car. I'd argue that extracting the hp/liter out of the current ICE cars dooms the car to not lasting more than 15 years or so before it's junked and the electronics definitely won't last that long. They are just too complex with too many parts that won't be maintained.

There are many more leaks that happen that you never hear about, or at least you don't hear about them in other parts of the country. I can point out a few recently here in AK.

you're buying into a certain agenda, pushed out by a small group of ppl with an agenda that is better for the corporate class rather than the avg citizen

oil is renewable source, the earth is always churning out more and there is trillions of barrels untapped , all that malarkey over drilling is overhyped, there is far more damage being done mining for these rare earth minerals lithium, rather than drilling for oil that is all over Canada and the USA

the next evolution for energy is zero point energy (discovered by Nikola Tesla btw) not a bunch of AA batteries glued together smh

[H2O_Doc]

Originally Posted by GoneIn4Secs

you're buying into a certain agenda, pushed out by a small group of ppl with an agenda that is better for the corporate class rather than the avg citizen

oil is renewable source, the earth is always churning out more and there is trillions of barrels untapped , all that malarkey over drilling is overhyped, there is far more damage being done mining for these rare earth minerals lithium, rather than drilling for oil that is all over Canada and the USA

the next evolution for energy is zero point energy (discovered by Nikola Tesla btw) not a bunch of AA batteries glued together smh

Renewable at what rate and how does that rate compare with the rate of consumptions?

[sikotic]

Funny since California also just announced that all residents shouldn't run their AC below 80 this weekend to save power. But yeah lets all go electric!

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by 440i6MT

I don't think you understand how stupid & corrupt the politicians are here in California...

My 440i is an example. What about Juan, who can barely afford to put food on the table, let alone replace his nine year old, broken down Nissan Maxima with even the cheapest electric alternative? He'll pack his family's bags and move to *literal* greener pastures.
Regardless, there are & will be even bigger issues causing an exodus from California.

Ditto over the pond too.

[M-technik-3]

Massachusetts has aligned themselves with the Banning of ICE vehicles in 2035.

[rwheels]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

President Jimmy Carter went the thermostat route (and a national speed limit of 55 MPH), he was not reelected...

Which paved the way for the left-lane hog. And the rest is history. Road rage anyone?

[x622]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

That advanced into the Prius hyper-miler...

That evolved into the tesla driving fart connoisseur

[chris719]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Seriously, I hate that effing function.

When your CEO is a child, this kind of stuff makes it into the product unfortunately.

[gonzo]

"So here are 5 coal miners pushing a battery car to the coal mine to charge up,"

Color coordinated fella might have had deep thoughts afterwards.