[IS350]

Originally Posted by Penguino

So you bought a $80K car for $60K. A standard depreciation curve will put the $80K car at about $45K value in 36 months. Meaning your cost of ownership would be $15K in 36 months. That's a win.

And btw, I've never seen a 3 year old X5 for $45K. Most are in the $50ks.

True, but whether the 45e is a standard deviation or not, will depend. I know the 40e vehicles were a different beast, but dealers couldn't give them away for less that $15k off.

Financing $68k at 60 months, would put me at $41,688 paid in 3 years. Subtract the $7,500 tax credit IF I can use it all. I'm at the equivalent of $34,188. Owing around $28,800 buy it. Some say it may be worth $30k, let's hope they're wrong.

Lease would be $29,037.92 after 3 years. (Nice to tie up less cash.)

If residual is truly $45,207, And I plan to keep it, I'm clearly better off buying, as always, with the lease.

So, is it worth spending $35k for 3 years vs $29k for the lease?

[TXSchnee]

Originally Posted by codex57

Oh wow! Yours is basically new!

Yeah, I think it's cuz there are a lot of tech companies in CA (although Texas has quite a few too). Apparently, the tech companies are really hit hard. Not the Googles and Apples, but the start ups. I have a ton of tech neighbors but they all work for the big boys so they're all still spending like normal. The sales guy who bought my car was explaining things to me. He's never seen it this bad, even during the tech crash around 08. People are up and leaving the country so they take whatever offer they can get because they. I guess there are the visa changes are affecting small companies' desires to deal with the H-1 visa headaches. You've also got the medical field hit hard too. When the hospitals geared up for COVID, they pushed off a lot of elective surgeries and that hit the hospital budgets the most so even doctors are getting forced pay cuts.

My husband is in tech, Austin is probably the biggest semiconductor area outside of CA. He has been working from home since March, and for the foreseeable future. I am a stay at home Mom, so even though I am driving my vehicle most days of the week, it is rarely further than 10 miles each way. Hence my low mileage. Tech and State jobs have been pretty stable here, so I think that is helping values quite a bit.

[Penguino]

Originally Posted by IS350

True, but whether the 45e is a standard deviation or not, will depend. I know the 40e vehicles were a different beast, but dealers couldn't give them away for less that $15k off.

Financing $68k at 60 months, would put me at $41,688 paid in 3 years. Subtract the $7,500 tax credit IF I can use it all. I'm at the equivalent of $34,188. Owing around $28,800 buy it. Some say it may be worth $30k, let's hope their wrong.

Lease would be $29,037.92 after 3 years. (Nice to tie up less cash.)

If residual is truly $45,207, And I plan to keep it, I'm clearly better off buying, as always, with the lease.

So, is it worth spending $35k for 3 years vs $29k for the lease?

Who says a 2021 $80K 45e will be worth $30K in 3 years because I'll buy two in 3 years just to keep another one JIC.

That's an unfounded estimation.

[aceman]

Residual is currently 54%, so that 80K MSRP with 36000miles on it should be worth around 43K in 3 years. Now residuals are based off MSRP. That 80K car can of been purchased for appx 80K - 5600 (7% discount) - 3500 (finance/loyalty) + tax - 7500 tax credit = appx $ 72K.

If the residual's hold (and yes, that's a big IF), the truck is a pretty good purchase due to the FTC, and thus the reason to buy (vs. lease).

My 2 cents...

Aceman

[IS350]

Originally Posted by Penguino

Who says a 2021 $80K 45e will be worth $30K in 3 years because I'll buy two in 3 years just to keep another one JIC.

That's an unfounded estimation.

I'm hoping so, too.

But, for perspective, here's a 3 year old 40e. With 36k-ish miles, listed for $34k, before negotiation.

Hey, check out this car I found on Cars.com: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/d...ff=share_other

[IMG][/IMG]

[jc.bmw]

Originally Posted by IS350

I'm hoping so, too.

But, for perspective, here's a 3 year old 40e. With 36k-ish miles, listed for $34k, before negotiation.

Hey, check out this car I found on Cars.com: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/d...ff=share_other

[IMG][/IMG]

If you assume this car had a 8% off MSRP sale price, then that asking price is 52% of the purchase price.

That does seem lower than I'd expect the equivalent 2017 xDrive35i price to be though.

It's a bit concerning. Have you seen more examples so we're not looking at a single data point?

[Penguino]

Originally Posted by IS350

I'm hoping so, too.

But, for perspective, here's a 3 year old 40e. With 36k-ish miles, listed for $34k, before negotiation.

Hey, check out this car I found on Cars.com: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/d...ff=share_other

[IMG][/IMG]

This could be a 4 year old (purchased in 2016) or nearly 5 years old (next year in 2021). Its the previous gen, not the currently model and it's the only 4-cyl X5 available. So is not a valid comparison.

What you are saying is that next summer, June 2021, the 2019 X5s that we're purchased on June 2018 as a 2019 model (effectively 3 years old) will be available for purchase under $40K. That's highly unlikely or will be the best vehicle you could purchase under $40K.

[Penguino]

Originally Posted by jc.bmw

If you assume this car had a 8% off MSRP sale price, then that asking price is 52% of the purchase price.

That does seem lower than I'd expect the equivalent 2017 xDrive35i price to be though.

It's a bit concerning. Have you seen more examples so we're not looking at a single data point?

The 2017 35s are selling for the same price range of the 2017 40e around $32-$38K. So the 40e is not selling for any significantly lower amount than the next comparable version.

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/search...6&zc=33130

[IS350]

Originally Posted by Penguino

This could be a 4 year old (purchased in 2016) or nearly 5 years old (next year in 2021). Its the previous gen, not the currently model and it's the only 4-cyl X5 available. So is not a valid comparison.

What you are saying is that next summer, June 2021, the 2019 X5s that we're purchased on June 2018 as a 2019 model (effectively 3 years old) will be available for purchase under $40K. That's highly unlikely or will be the best vehicle you could purchase under $40K.

True, lots of variables. Regardless, 3 calendar years later, it's selling for half the MSRP, and that's clearly more than what the dealership gave that owner on trade in. Assume they got around $30k for trade in.
That's less than half. So more like a 42% residual.

I think it's probably a wash, whether to buy or lease, even with the $7,500 tax credit.

What I keep coming back to is total expense for 3 years in both scenarios. I keep about $5 or $6k in my pocket if I lease, and don't have to argue with a dealership over trade value 3 years down the road when my free maintenance is up. No?

[Penguino]

Originally Posted by IS350

True, lots of variables. Regardless, 3 calendar years later, it's selling for half the MSRP, and that's clearly more than what the dealership gave that owner on trade in. Assume they got around $30k for trade in.
That's less than half. So more like a 42% residual.

I think it's probably a wash, whether to buy or lease, even with the $7,500 tax credit.

What I keep coming back to is total expense for 3 years in both scenarios. I keep about $5 or $6k in my pocket if I lease, and don't have to argue with a dealership over trade value 3 years down the road when my free maintenance is up. No?

It seems nothing I say will change your mind so you can go ahead and do what you want if that's what you feel it's best for you. I'll tell you that you are trying to justify things without comparing them the right way.

The previous gen X5 changed models in MY19 and the current gen will change models in MY26 or so. So based on your comparison above, then yes, if you purchase a MY25 in 2024 and sell it the last month of calendar year 2028, since the new model came out 2 years prior and your vehicle is currently the previous gen, and it's almost a 5 year old vehicle, then yes, you can expect a depreciation similar to the one you listed above.

In the current scenario, leasing/buying a MY21 that is due 3 years later in 2023, that comparison is irrelevant.

If what you are saying is true, then next Summer 2021, 3 calendar years later, the MY19 should be worth about $35k from the current $55-$60K.

[IS350]

Originally Posted by Penguino

It seems nothing I say will change your mind so you can go ahead and do what you want if that's what you feel it's best for you. I'll tell you that you are trying to justify things without comparing them the right way.

The previous gen X5 changed models in MY19 and the current gen will change models in MY26 or so. So based on your comparison above, then yes, if you purchase a MY25 in 2024 and sell it the last month of calendar year 2028, since the new model came out 2 years prior and your vehicle is currently the previous gen, and it's almost a 5 year old vehicle, then yes, you can expect a depreciation similar to the one you listed above.

In the current scenario, leasing/buying a MY21 that is due 3 years later in 2023, that comparison is irrelevant.

If what you are saying is true, then next Summer 2021, 3 calendar years later, the MY19 should be worth about $35k from the current $55-$60K.

Fair enough on new model variance, but if my total goal is to pay the least amount of money and/or net the smallest deficit in 3 years, the lease costs me less, no?

36 payments of $800 vs 36 payments of $1158.
Even if I can find a way to utilize the full $7,500 tax credit, as posted above, I'm paying around $6k more to finance with the plan of trading it in, and hoping it holds value.

I've been leasing BMWs for about 10 years, selling them for almost 2. Never have I seen a leased car be worth the predicted residual, have you, or anyone else?

[Penguino]

Originally Posted by IS350

Fair enough on new model variance, but if my total goal is to pay the least amount of money and/or net the smallest deficit in 3 years, the lease costs me less, no?

36 payments of $800 vs 36 payments of $1158.
Even if I can find a way to utilize the full $7,500 tax credit, as posted above, I'm paying around $6k more to finance with the plan of trading it in, and hoping it holds value.

I've been leasing BMWs for about 10 years, selling them for almost 2. Never have I seen a leased car be worth the predicted residual, have you, or anyone else?

Give me your build price and your buying price and I'll send over the numbers.

[Penguino]

Originally Posted by IS350

Fair enough on new model variance, but if my total goal is to pay the least amount of money and/or net the smallest deficit in 3 years, the lease costs me less, no?

36 payments of $800 vs 36 payments of $1158.
Even if I can find a way to utilize the full $7,500 tax credit, as posted above, I'm paying around $6k more to finance with the plan of trading it in, and hoping it holds value.

I've been leasing BMWs for about 10 years, selling them for almost 2. Never have I seen a leased car be worth the predicted residual, have you, or anyone else?

I've been buying BMWs since I was 18 and never lost a penny. Primarily M cars which hold value very well but never lost money. The X5 holds value very well.

[CaboM4]

Originally Posted by Penguino

Who says a 2021 $80K 45e will be worth $30K in 3 years because I'll buy two in 3 years just to keep another one JIC.

That's an unfounded estimation.

I better put a bullet in my head if this turns up true! ... worse depreciation than my 2016 F85 ... i don't think so!

[CaboM4]

Originally Posted by IS350

Subtract the $7,500 tax credit IF I can use it all.

I'm sorry ... but "if"??? I'm honestly not sure if you should be buying a BMW if you don't generate enough income to have a tax liability of atleast $7500 for an entire year (even if you have already paid your tax liability through biweekly payroll deductions, you're eligible for your credit as a tax refund when you file the 2020 taxes)

[CaboM4]

Originally Posted by aceman

Residual is currently 54%, so that 80K MSRP with 36000miles on it should be worth around 43K in 3 years. Now residuals are based off MSRP. That 80K car can of been purchased for appx 80K - 5600 (7% discount) - 3500 (finance/loyalty) + tax - 7500 tax credit = appx $ 72K.

If the residual's hold (and yes, that's a big IF), the truck is a pretty good purchase due to the FTC, and thus the reason to buy (vs. lease).

My 2 cents...

Aceman

You gotta do some more shopping ... don't bite for anything less than 8% ... even in current covid times ... hungry dealers are going to 10 and 11% off MSRP on Priority 1 orders.

[CaboM4]

Originally Posted by Penguino

This could be a 4 year old (purchased in 2016) or nearly 5 years old (next year in 2021). Its the previous gen, not the currently model and it's the only 4-cyl X5 available. So is not a valid comparison.

Exactly ... the 40e was dogshit ... nobody wanted it and dealers were paying people to take them off their lots. Now that it has a proper I6 ICE, people honestly want to drive them (not just because of the Fed Tax incentives ... but it sure doesn't hurt)

Also, being that 2017 was the 4th of a shortened 5 year production run of the F15/F85 body style, you are seeing increased depreciation due to changeover from F15 to G05

Originally Posted by Penguino

What you are saying is that next summer, June 2021, the 2019 X5s that we're purchased on June 2018 as a 2019 model (effectively 3 years old) will be available for purchase under $40K. That's highly unlikely or will be the best vehicle you could purchase under $40K.

This would be a better predictor of what 2021 CPO G05's will be in 2023.

[IS350]

Originally Posted by Penguino

Give me your build price and your buying price and I'll send over the numbers.

Thanks, MSRP is $82,195

Lease:
Total including $500 lease credit and fees: $70,834.70
$1292.72 down. $792.72 for 35 months.

Finance:
Total including $2,500 finance credit and fees:
$68,873.71
$1,000 down. $1158 for 60 months.

[IS350]

Originally Posted by CaboM4

I'm sorry ... but "if"??? I'm honestly not sure if you should be buying a BMW if you don't generate enough income to have a tax liability of atleast $7500 for an entire year (even if you have already paid your tax liability through biweekly payroll deductions, you're eligible for your credit as a tax refund when you file the 2020 taxes)

Thanks, new marriage and baby deduction, so I wasn't sure if I'd be able to fully use the $7,500. Guess I could always roll over some IRA to Roth $, but there's still a penalty.

[IS350]

Originally Posted by Penguino

I've been buying BMWs since I was 18 and never lost a penny. Primarily M cars which hold value very well but never lost money. The X5 holds value very well.

Congrats, ever lease? M cars definitely do better.

[CaboM4]

Originally Posted by IS350

Thanks, new marriage and baby deduction, so I wasn't sure if I'd be able to fully use the $7,500. Guess I could always roll over some IRA to Roth $, but there's still a penalty.

I would model it out with your 2019 taxes ... add those credits in and see what your liability still is for 2019 ... should be similar unless any material changes to income (downward).

Congrats on the wife and kid!

[CaboM4]

Originally Posted by IS350

Congrats, ever lease? M cars definitely do better.

This is the first BMW i have ever bought ... always leased, but the current situation makes it a huge win for me ... but that's only because of aggressive discounting (dealer contribution, BMW NA credits & CCA) & federal tax savings

Yes, i was paying $850 a month on my $115k F85