[TurtleBoy]

Originally Posted by alanzyy

My uneducated guess is:


- for X3 sales climb:
1. BMW NA forecast decline of larger SUV sales and want to make up the number that need to be reported. Inflate X3 sales seems to be easiest way out
2. Less MSRP increase for X3 as end of generation MY; also heavy subsidy and incentive
3. I wonder if they imported more base model X3 from South Africa factory?
4. I wonder if there is whale fleet sale deal? Seems lots of X3 with rental fleet recently.

X3 sales declined 4%. The only SUVs that had a YOY increase for the year were the X1 and the iX. No PY data for the XM.

[cbrg05]

Chart says YoY was up 7.4% but Q4 23' vs Q4 22' was down 9.4% which is understandable with the new gen 5 series coming out.

[LOFT]

Originally Posted by cobramite

People "in the middle" always get shafted on just about everything, taxes, wages, you name it and it is not going to get any easier as they are going to be footing the bill for 10 million illegals who have found a new home.

I thought this post was about cars.

[matowi]

Do we have any insight on what the dealers are incentivized to sell? Maybe there’s a top down push to inflate X3 vs X5 deliveries?

[cobramite]

Originally Posted by LOFT

I thought this post was about cars.

Yeah it is Dude and the plight of the middle class is germain to the subject of premium brand vehicle consumption by that demographic. Hope the posts here about inflation, taxes, etc., haven't ruined your day and I do not see anyone arguing about politics here.

[TurtleBoy]

Originally Posted by matowi

Do we have any insight on what the dealers are incentivized to sell? Maybe there’s a top down push to inflate X3 vs X5 deliveries?

No we don't but again, the X3 sales declined for the year not increased.

[matowi]

Originally Posted by TurtleBoy

No we don't but again, the X3 sales declined for the year not increased.

Correct, my point was if the dealers weren’t pushing out X3s instead X5s to show a strong Q4 (X3 sales much stronger vs prior year) and to dampen the overall SUV category slide
It would look bad for BMW if all their suv sales went down the cliff

[BlkGS]

I don't think dealers really are pushing people into anything. People can afford what they can afford. What they can afford is going down as a result of outside factors that some would say are political.

No amount of BMW training and spiffs is gonna convince me to spend $20k I don't have on an X5 over an X3. There's not much a salesperson can say to convince me I should buy an X3 over an X5 if I was looking at the larger SUV. If I go to the dealer after my X5 lease is up and they say for the same vehicle it's gonna be $400 a month more and I need $8k at signing, then I might move down to an X3 or X1.

[LOFT]

Originally Posted by cobramite

Yeah it is Dude and the plight of the middle class is germain to the subject of premium brand vehicle consumption by that demographic. Hope the posts here about inflation, taxes, etc., haven't ruined your day and I do not see anyone arguing about politics here.

I can handle the distinction between economics and politics (eg. 10 million illegals) and the challenges both present. Can you see the difference?

But like my post said, it's not worth my time to argue this further.

[TurtleBoy]

I'm leaning less and less to economic factors after seeing Audi's numbers. For 2023 the YOY growth for the Q7 was 50%, the Q8 45% and the Q8 e-tron 9%.

Their smallest SUV, the Q3, was the only one of their SUVs to experience a decline in sales. I would imagine it is likely that the X1 had some effect on its sales.

Not sure what there supply was like in 2022 so that may be something to keep in mind.

[cobramite]

Originally Posted by LOFT

I can handle the distinction between economics and politics (eg. 10 million illegals) and the challenges both present. Can you see the difference?

But like my post said, it's not worth my time to argue this further.

Who is arguing?

[zippytank49]

My vote is for gas prices.

[matowi]

Originally Posted by TurtleBoy

I'm leaning less and less to economic factors after seeing Audi's numbers. For 2023 the YOY growth for the Q7 was 50%, the Q8 45% and the Q8 e-tron 9%.

Their smallest SUV, the Q3, was the only one of their SUVs to experience a decline in sales. I would imagine it is likely that the X1 had some effect on its sales.

Not sure what there supply was like in 2022 so that may be something to keep in mind.

Meaning BMW is losing share in a growing SUV market?

[TurtleBoy]

Originally Posted by matowi

Meaning BMW is losing share in a growing SUV market?

At this point that looks to be the case. So far they are the only manufacture with declines over their SUV product line.

Just saw the Acura numbers and the MDX was up 24%.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by TurtleBoy

I'm leaning less and less to economic factors after seeing Audi's numbers. For 2023 the YOY growth for the Q7 was 50%, the Q8 45% and the Q8 e-tron 9%.

Their smallest SUV, the Q3, was the only one of their SUVs to experience a decline in sales. I would imagine it is likely that the X1 had some effect on its sales.

Not sure what there supply was like in 2022 so that may be something to keep in mind.

Q7 is a strong contender in the segment for a luxury people mover. Base models start $5k less than X5, it comes with 3 rows, and I suspect the little 4 banger beats X5 on fuel economy.

Q8 surprised me. It's kind of an odd duck that I didn't think sold that well. Are the numbers for Q8 significant, or was it like, it went from 500 to 750 sold? Q8 starts at $74 k and is a 2 row that has a cramped cargo space. Maybe it's Urus-lite looks are the difference? Q8 definitely looks the part of a high end luxury vehicle. Or a fancy Atlas Crossport.

[TurtleBoy]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

Q7 is a strong contender in the segment for a luxury people mover. Base models start $5k less than X5, it comes with 3 rows, and I suspect the little 4 banger beats X5 on fuel economy.

Q8 surprised me. It's kind of an odd duck that I didn't think sold that well. Are the numbers for Q8 significant, or was it like, it went from 500 to 750 sold? Q8 starts at $74 k and is a 2 row that has a cramped cargo space. Maybe it's Urus-lite looks are the difference? Q8 definitely looks the part of a high end luxury vehicle. Or a fancy Atlas Crossport.

I'm not sure if Audi's sales figures are significant given the top contenders in the segment but in the case of the Q8 the increase was from 9,372 to 13,550. It did outsell the X6 though.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by TurtleBoy

At this point that looks to be the case. So far they are the only manufacture with declines over their SUV product line.

Just saw the Acura numbers and the MDX was up 24%.

MDX is cheap. It starts at $50k. It's not hard to envision a family coping with increased prices for everything switching to a vehicle that's 10+ grand cheaper and in their "competitive". Admittedly, to get similar power and performance to a 40i you're in a MDX Type S that costs a lot more... That may be the telling thing. I would wager that a large share of X5 buyers would be fine with a non turbo inline 6 at ~300hp if it translated to a lower price. Probably even a turbo 4.

[TurtleBoy]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

MDX is cheap. It starts at $50k. It's not hard to envision a family coping with increased prices for everything switching to a vehicle that's 10+ grand cheaper and in their "competitive". Admittedly, to get similar power and performance to a 40i you're in a MDX Type S that costs a lot more... That may be the telling thing. I would wager that a large share of X5 buyers would be fine with a non turbo inline 6 at ~300hp if it translated to a lower price. Probably even a turbo 4.

Yes, many of the competitors on the segment are less expensive. That does not mean though that it is economic factors causing their sales ton increase while BMW's decrease. So far the data we have shows the opposite. Competitors with similar pricing (Audi, Porsche and Mercedes) have shown increases for 2023 (Porsche and MB through Q3, wait on full year figures).

[GrokuE7]

Speaking on the X6, the $10k increase may have added to the decline on their sales. Granted, we all know MSRP increases come after a LCI. However, that can be a hard negative deciding factor for some.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by TurtleBoy

Yes, many of the competitors on the segment are less expensive. That does not mean though that it is economic factors causing their sales ton increase while BMW's decrease. So far the data we have shows the opposite. Competitors with similar pricing (Audi, Porsche and Mercedes) have shown increases for 2023 (Porsche and MB through Q3, wait on full year figures).

I don't disagree, it suggests it. But the reality is Rx, MDX, and Q7 are all cheaper, and all up.

Porsche buyers I think are a different group financially. It's as far above the X5 in price as MDX is below it. Mercedes, I dunno who is actually buying GLE nowdays, doesn't seem like many people based on my anecdotal area. GLE is pretty much the real direct competitor, but it has a cheaper base trim with a 4 banger.

Again, I don't think it's that much of a stretch to see buyers leaving BMW for cheaper offerings from MB , Lexus, Acura, and Audi through a financial lens. They're getting the same or more for less outlay.

My wife wants to tighter up our belt this year. Her thoughts is skip the annual passes to Disney. If we had a lease coming up, she would probably push to get a cheaper lease next round. We aren't hurting, but she feels like we need to skip out on some stuff that's extra, also because she wants to get an expensive gym membership lol. In her mind, trimming elsewhere rationalizes.it.

[matowi]

I wouldn’t blame my wife for saving up to get a premium gym membership… lots of encouragement!

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by GrokuE7

Speaking on the X6, the $10k increase may have added to the decline on their sales. Granted, we all know MSRP increases come after a LCI. However, that can be a hard negative deciding factor for some.

Tbh.... I don't get the rationale to buy an x6, especially with the x4 being out. You've compromised the space for the shape. So if you've already compromised your rear seats such that they're not that useful, why not go x4 for les money? It arguably looks better,, is faster unless you go M or M Performance, and is better on gas? Clearly a lot of people like it, but I just can't understand why not go x4 for that shape.