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      12-27-2019, 02:05 PM   #1
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Microsoft Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

According to Microsoft's tracking poll on President Trumps Impeachment and Job Performance, here's what the respondents are saying:

54% support the Senate voting to remove President Trump from office
40% Do not support a Senate vote to impeach and remove

52% disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as President
44% approve of the job he is doing as President

50% of the respondents would vote for a democrat if the election were held today
42% of the respondents would vote for Trump
10% would vote independently-someone other than a democrat or Trump

58% of the respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction under Trump
31% think the country is headed in the right direction

There's a long way to go until the election, and of course things may change but the support for Trump does not appear very solid at this time. Perhaps things will change by this time next month and the numbers will be updated. I welcome your comments.
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      12-27-2019, 02:28 PM   #2
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What's the methodology? Without that you may as well have posted the count based on the first 10 boxes of Cheerios that were picked up from the shelf at your local Albertson's.

I'll just leave this here.

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      12-27-2019, 03:24 PM   #3
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You may find the methodology is listed on the results page, along with its historical validation. I'll just leave it at that for your own research.
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      12-27-2019, 03:37 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quick6 View Post
You may find the methodology is listed on the results page, along with its historical validation. I'll just leave it at that for your own research.
I think there's a factor that the polls aren't taking into account, I'm going to call it "the silent majority factor". It is my personal and antidotal observation that a lot of folks are sick of being looked down upon by the progressive elite liberals and therefore keep their political view to themselves even when polled. I think it is in a big way what happened in the 2016 US General election. And I think it has actually fuelled a lot of what is and has been going on. The polls were stacked in favour or HRC, the dems and Hillary couldn't believe they lost (still can't really) and I think that has fuelled what has been going on since then. Had the polls been accurate maybe the left wouldn't be completely in denial and bent on ousting Trump.

Trump has been and is a lightning rod, but he is not the only example of how wrong the pollsters got it and how the left have responded.

Just my two cents and it might be the rum talking.....
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      12-27-2019, 04:35 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quick6 View Post
You may find the methodology is listed on the results page, along with its historical validation. I'll just leave it at that for your own research.
Link?
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      12-27-2019, 04:38 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
I think there's a factor that the polls aren't taking into account, I'm going to call it "the silent majority factor". It is my personal and antidotal observation that a lot of folks are sick of being looked down upon by the progressive elite liberals and therefore keep their political view to themselves even when polled. I think it is in a big way what happened in the 2016 US General election. And I think it has actually fuelled a lot of what is and has been going on. The polls were stacked in favour or HRC, the dems and Hillary couldn't believe they lost (still can't really) and I think that has fuelled what has been going on since then. Had the polls been accurate maybe the left wouldn't be completely in denial and bent on ousting Trump.

Trump has been and is a lightning rod, but he is not the only example of how wrong the pollsters got it and how the left have responded.

Just my two cents and it might be the rum talking.....

The rum speaks well.

About two weeks before the election in 2016, drove from Arkansas to Ohio across the heartland of America and didn't see a SINGLE positive Hillary sign. The only time her name was seen was in the context of how bad she was. At that point, I knew it was OVER. And it was.
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      12-27-2019, 04:51 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
I think there's a factor that the polls aren't taking into account, I'm going to call it "the silent majority factor". It is my personal and antidotal observation that a lot of folks are sick of being looked down upon by the progressive elite liberals and therefore keep their political view to themselves even when polled. I think it is in a big way what happened in the 2016 US General election. And I think it has actually fuelled a lot of what is and has been going on. The polls were stacked in favour or HRC, the dems and Hillary couldn't believe they lost (still can't really) and I think that has fuelled what has been going on since then. Had the polls been accurate maybe the left wouldn't be completely in denial and bent on ousting Trump.

Trump has been and is a lightning rod, but he is not the only example of how wrong the pollsters got it and how the left have responded.

Just my two cents and it might be the rum talking.....
Enjoy the rum by all means! Regarding the 2016 election, there were some late developments as I recall that contributed to a significant last minute switch. I do believe that Director Comey's comments right before the election and the crazy ass guy from NY having copies of Hilary's emails (if I remember correctly) and the resulting 'scandal" took the wind out of certain sails. I can't recall if that contributed to making certain polls quickly obsolete or not but for sure contributed to Hilary's demise. I will follow this poll and see what it says as things progress-we're a long ways away from the election and things could easily change.
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      12-27-2019, 07:17 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quick6 View Post
Enjoy the rum by all means! Regarding the 2016 election, there were some late developments as I recall that contributed to a significant last minute switch. I do believe that Director Comey's comments right before the election and the crazy ass guy from NY having copies of Hilary's emails (if I remember correctly) and the resulting 'scandal" took the wind out of certain sails. I can't recall if that contributed to making certain polls quickly obsolete or not but for sure contributed to Hilary's demise. I will follow this poll and see what it says as things progress-we're a long ways away from the election and things could easily change.
Ah yes, Danger, wasn't it? I'd forgotten about him.

I am just curious as to why you put scandal in""? Does that imply you did not feel it was scandal worthy?
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      12-27-2019, 07:20 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quick6 View Post
Enjoy the rum by all means! Regarding the 2016 election, there were some late developments as I recall that contributed to a significant last minute switch. I do believe that Director Comey's comments right before the election and the crazy ass guy from NY having copies of Hilary's emails (if I remember correctly) and the resulting 'scandal" took the wind out of certain sails. I can't recall if that contributed to making certain polls quickly obsolete or not but for sure contributed to Hilary's demise. I will follow this poll and see what it says as things progress-we're a long ways away from the election and things could easily change.
Microsoft was polling around 80% and higher for Hillary in late October, that would be a crazy amount of "last minute switching".
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      12-27-2019, 07:31 PM   #10
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best poll from last national election was

https://www.investors.com/politics/i...on-of-country/

and it showing Trump has gain ground since the impeachment mess.
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      12-28-2019, 02:00 AM   #11
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I mean which voter typically has time to respond to a poll? I am busy at work paying my taxes. I don’t have time to answer a silly poll and it’s certainly none of your business how I’m going to vote. Soooooo, who are the people answering these polls....you have to ask yourself?

Reading the methodology, well I’m no professional statistician, but you can make anything defend your position. I noticed some interesting things they mention in attempting to gather data. Using mobile user device and Xbox respondents, paying $10 in the form of an amazon gift card etc. only my kid would respond to something like that. $10 is not worth my time and I’m not on my Xbox to respond to polls. Also, they mention aggregating 51 states data. If the 51st state is Puerto Rico, they are heavily democrat so may skew numbers too. They never explain what the 51st state is. They also apply weighting.......hmmmm. I’m sure it’s all very accurate and correctly predicted the last presidential election outcome lol.

https://researchdmr.com/Methods2016
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      12-28-2019, 05:58 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c1pher View Post
I mean which voter typically has time to respond to a poll? I am busy at work paying my taxes. I donít have time to answer a silly poll and itís certainly none of your business how Iím going to vote. Soooooo, who are the people answering these polls....you have to ask yourself?

Reading the methodology, well Iím no professional statistician, but you can make anything defend your position. I noticed some interesting things they mention in attempting to gather data. Using mobile user device and Xbox respondents, paying $10 in the form of an amazon gift card etc. only my kid would respond to something like that. $10 is not worth my time and Iím not on my Xbox to respond to polls. Also, they mention aggregating 51 states data. If the 51st state is Puerto Rico, they are heavily democrat so may skew numbers too. They never explain what the 51st state is. They also apply weighting.......hmmmm. Iím sure itís all very accurate and correctly predicted the last presidential election outcome lol.

https://researchdmr.com/Methods2016
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      12-28-2019, 06:47 AM   #13
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Single polls are useless.
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      12-28-2019, 07:08 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
I think there's a factor that the polls aren't taking into account, I'm going to call it "the silent majority factor". It is my personal and antidotal observation that a lot of folks are sick of being looked down upon by the progressive elite liberals and therefore keep their political view to themselves even when polled. I think it is in a big way what happened in the 2016 US General election. And I think it has actually fuelled a lot of what is and has been going on. The polls were stacked in favour or HRC, the dems and Hillary couldn't believe they lost (still can't really) and I think that has fuelled what has been going on since then. Had the polls been accurate maybe the left wouldn't be completely in denial and bent on ousting Trump.

Trump has been and is a lightning rod, but he is not the only example of how wrong the pollsters got it and how the left have responded.

Just my two cents and it might be the rum talking.....

The rum speaks well.

About two weeks before the election in 2016, drove from Arkansas to Ohio across the heartland of America and didn't see a SINGLE positive Hillary sign. The only time her name was seen was in the context of how bad she was. At that point, I knew it was OVER. And it was.
Around the same time. I kept telling my wife he is going to win as I don't see one HRC bumper sticker or sign anywhere even here in metro NY.

Many highly intelligent people that I work with (surgeons) informed me in private before the election that they would be voting for Trump. Many are minorities. The same result will be transpiring once again. Trumps an idiot but he's much better for the US then the fools on the left are pushing. Everyone knows it. Even the Lefty's know it hence the impeachment push to ATTEMPT to damage him. Won't work.

Polls are meaningless at this stage in the GAME.

Trump will win and the crying will continue for another 4 years.
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      12-28-2019, 08:04 AM   #15
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Wait the pole is by Microsoft...its very fair and balanced right?
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      12-28-2019, 10:00 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post

Trump will win and the crying will continue for another 4 years.
and should the Democrats keep the house, they will Impeach him 2 more times. Maybe they'll get one to stick and President Pence can get a running start on his 2025 election
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      12-28-2019, 12:25 PM   #17
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and should the Democrats keep the house, they will Impeach him 2 more times. Maybe they'll get one to stick and President Pence can get a running start on his 2025 election
The House has a higher probability of flipping than trump winning. Its 99%
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      12-28-2019, 03:24 PM   #18
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If the President gets re-elected....notice I said President. Have you noticed that journalists refer to the President as Mr. Trump, not President Trump?

Anyway, if President Trump gets re-elected, it would really be helpful if he also won the majority this time. I think a lot of zealots are emboldened because the electoral college was won and not a total majority. I agree with using the electoral college to level the playing field, but the crazies do not and also winning the majority would help shut a few of those people up.
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      12-28-2019, 03:28 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by c1pher View Post
If the President gets re-elected....notice I said President. Have you noticed that journalists refer to the President as Mr. Trump, not President Trump?

Anyway, if President Trump gets re-elected, it would really be helpful if he also won the majority this time. I think a lot of zealots are emboldened because the electoral college was won and not a total majority. I agree with using the electoral college to level the playing field, but the crazies do not and also winning the majority would help shut a few of those people up.
I'd like to agree with you but I suspect that if the President wins in 2020 (and it's looking like he has a strong chance) the left will continue on down the "he's not my President" road regardless of how the victory is taken. He could win 70% electoral college and popular vote and the MSM and all the rest of the enlightened ones will continue on their tirade.

Fingers crossed.
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      12-28-2019, 04:13 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c1pher View Post
If the President gets re-elected....notice I said President. Have you noticed that journalists refer to the President as Mr. Trump, not President Trump?

Anyway, if President Trump gets re-elected, it would really be helpful if he also won the majority this time. I think a lot of zealots are emboldened because the electoral college was won and not a total majority. I agree with using the electoral college to level the playing field, but the crazies do not and also winning the majority would help shut a few of those people up.
I call him Mr. Trump, as well.

This may be the only time I defend journalists but it's a fairly common practice to call the President, Mr. XXXXXXX rather than President XXXXXXXX. I'm almost certain the WSJ calls him President Trump on the first calling then the rest of the article will have him listed as Mr. Trump.
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      12-28-2019, 04:14 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c1pher View Post
If the President gets re-elected....notice I said President. Have you noticed that journalists refer to the President as Mr. Trump, not President Trump?

Anyway, if President Trump gets re-elected, it would really be helpful if he also won the majority this time. I think a lot of zealots are emboldened because the electoral college was won and not a total majority. I agree with using the electoral college to level the playing field, but the crazies do not and also winning the majority would help shut a few of those people up.
And when did you get the Diavel?!?!! How do you like it?
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      12-28-2019, 06:33 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
I call him Mr. Trump, as well.

This may be the only time I defend journalists but it's a fairly common practice to call the President, Mr. XXXXXXX rather than President XXXXXXXX. I'm almost certain the WSJ calls him President Trump on the first calling then the rest of the article will have him listed as Mr. Trump.
I wasnít aware of this etiquette. I remember President Obama being called President quite consistently, but maybe Iím wrong.
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