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      04-09-2019, 08:05 AM   #1233
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Yeah scary but true
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      04-09-2019, 09:15 AM   #1234
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Start thinking about your write-in candidate!
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      04-09-2019, 10:34 AM   #1235
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Run Silent View Post
I agree, but I wonder how big of an impact this is really going to have, and honestly - that is what makes me the most nervous.

I believe that a large swath of Democrats have no interest in the extreme positions held by many of the 2020 Candidates, such as the GND, reparations, guaranteed income, et al. The problem, however, is that the other option is Trump.

As such, I worry that the vocal far left crowd will push the Democrat primaries to the radical left and cause someone like Bernie to get the nomination. Then, when paired up against Trump - the Democrats are going to do the same thing that many Republicans in this country did in the last election, which is to vote against the other candidate, not in favor of theirs.

Many, including myself, were not a fan of Trump during the previous election, but there was a whopping 0% chance I was ever going to vote for Hillary. As such, Trump got the vote of many folks like myself.

I worry that this will happen in 2020 on the other side. Many people will not be a fan of the Democrat option, but will never vote for Trump - so they will put a check mark next to Bernie or Harris, or whomever the nominee ends up being.

This is something to be very concerned about.
This scenario keeps me up at night.

I can only imagine the mkt reaction to Bernie winning...
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      04-09-2019, 10:52 AM   #1236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Run Silent View Post
I agree, but I wonder how big of an impact this is really going to have, and honestly - that is what makes me the most nervous.

I believe that a large swath of Democrats have no interest in the extreme positions held by many of the 2020 Candidates, such as the GND, reparations, guaranteed income, et al. The problem, however, is that the other option is Trump.

As such, I worry that the vocal far left crowd will push the Democrat primaries to the radical left and cause someone like Bernie to get the nomination. Then, when paired up against Trump - the Democrats are going to do the same thing that many Republicans in this country did in the last election, which is to vote against the other candidate, not in favor of theirs.

Many, including myself, were not a fan of Trump during the previous election, but there was a whopping 0% chance I was ever going to vote for Hillary. As such, Trump got the vote of many folks like myself.

I worry that this will happen in 2020 on the other side. Many people will not be a fan of the Democrat option, but will never vote for Trump - so they will put a check mark next to Bernie or Harris, or whomever the nominee ends up being.

This is something to be very concerned about.
Brilliantly stated, as always.

At this moment we have 1 "moderate" choice and he's being portrayed as a kiddie fiddler. 2020 is looking bleak.

Last edited by DETRoadster; 04-09-2019 at 11:48 AM..
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      04-09-2019, 10:54 AM   #1237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by .2pdk View Post
This scenario keeps me up at night.

I can only imagine the mkt reaction to Bernie winning...
Yep - I am probably going to move my portfolio to bonds a few days before the election or if polls show that he is nearly certain to win, just to hedge. If Trump wins, I don't expect the markets to jump too much because of where they already are, but I do expect them to take a dive if Bernie wins. I would rather miss out on the ST gain if Trump wins again than risk the loss if Bernie does.
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      04-09-2019, 10:58 AM   #1238
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Run Silent View Post
Yep - I am probably going to move my portfolio to bonds a few days before the election or if polls show that he is nearly certain to win, just to hedge. If Trump wins, I don't expect the markets to jump too much because of where they already are, but I do expect them to take a dive if Bernie wins. I would rather miss out on the ST gain if Trump wins again than risk the loss if Bernie does.
Agreed but if it's close and Trump wins the mkts will get a temporary bump on the uncertainty baked in.

I will be reducing US exposure this year anyway if we test highs on S&P.
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      04-09-2019, 11:15 AM   #1239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
What else the Congress is working on with my tax money I wonder? Try to bring Elvis back to life?
so Kirsten Gillibrand's campaign motto is "BRAVE". wonder if she has any plans to change that after voting 'present' on Often-Confused's GND Bill?
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      04-09-2019, 11:21 AM   #1240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by .2pdk View Post
This scenario keeps me up at night.

I can only imagine the mkt reaction to Bernie winning...
I don’t think that’s going to happen, but it’s true, the never Trumpers, people like dodger, are so unhinged they would send the whole fucking country down the toilet before they would vote for Trump... fortunately, Trump hasn’t lost his base, and the socialists have lost a fair amount of theirs.
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      04-09-2019, 11:50 AM   #1241
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Originally Posted by DETRoadster View Post
Brilliantly stated, as always.

At time moment we have 1 "moderate" choice and he's being portrayed as a kiddie fiddler. 2020 is looking bleak.
Yep - and I've said before, and still firmly believe, that if Biden wins the nomination, Trump will lose the presidency. If someone else wins the Democrat nomination, such as Bernie or Beto or Harris, then the Democrats still have a strong chance of winning the election, but it is certainly not a lock by any means.

Quote:
Originally Posted by .2pdk View Post
Agreed but if it's close and Trump wins the mkts will get a temporary bump on the uncertainty baked in.

I will be reducing US exposure this year anyway if we test highs on S&P.
I agree and stated as such in my previous post. Where my worry lies, however, is that I believe the market adjustments post election will swing larger in the negative if a democrat wins versus to the positive if Trump wins. Most of my investments are tied to the S&P Index, so I agree with your points there as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ****** View Post
I donít think thatís going to happen, but itís true, the never Trumpers, people like dodger, are so unhinged they would send the whole fucking country down the toilet before they would vote for Trump... fortunately, Trump hasnít lost his base, and the socialists have lost a fair amount of theirs.
Don't hold your breath. Many of the Democrat voters position is exactly the same coming into 2020 as Republicans were in the last election. They don't like their candidate choices, but despise the current administration and certainly will never vote for the Republican. The same thought process that happened last time with Republicans despising the Obama administration and never considering voting for Hillary.

The next election is not a lock for either party unless Biden wins the Democrat nomination. If that happens, then Trump is toast.
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      04-09-2019, 11:53 AM   #1242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Run Silent View Post
Yep - and I've said before, and still firmly believe, that if Biden wins the nomination, Trump will lose the presidency. If someone else wins the Democrat nomination, such as Bernie or Beto or Harris, then the Democrats still have a strong chance of winning the election, but it is certainly not a lock by any means.



I agree and stated as such in my previous post. Where my worry lies, however, is that I believe the market adjustments post election will swing larger in the negative if a democrat wins versus to the positive if Trump wins. Most of my investments are tied to the S&P Index, so I agree with your points there as well.



Don't hold your breath. Many of the Democrat voters position is exactly the same coming into 2020 as Republicans were in the last election. They don't like their candidate choices, but despise the current administration and certainly will never vote for the Republican. The same thought process that happened last time with Republicans despising the Obama administration and never considering voting for Hillary.

The next election is not a lock for either party unless Biden wins the Democrat nomination. If that happens, then Trump is toast.
Just stating my opinion... hope that’s ok with you.
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      04-09-2019, 12:21 PM   #1243
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Originally Posted by ****** View Post
Just stating my opinion... hope thatís ok with you.


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      04-09-2019, 12:48 PM   #1244
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All this "socialist at the helm" talk is giving me indigestion.

Hopefully we get another kick at the can if the S&P breaks to new highs.

My Nasdaq100 exposure is also getting close whereas my US bank exposure is sucking the high hard one.

I'm not against raising 50-75% cash depending on how things progress.

I've been polling my HNW clients and they're ALL in favor of raising cash if that tells you anything.
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      04-09-2019, 01:05 PM   #1245
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      04-09-2019, 02:46 PM   #1246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by .2pdk View Post

I've been polling my HNW clients and they're ALL in favor of raising cash if that tells you anything.
So the tops are in?
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      04-09-2019, 08:05 PM   #1247
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Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
So the tops are in?
You know what they say...retail investors are a great contrarian indicator so I would have to say the tops are NOT in yet...
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      04-10-2019, 06:01 PM   #1248
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This was emailed to me today... Probably old but new to me. Thought I would share:

THE NEW ANT and the Grasshopper, Two Versions:

The ANT AND THE GRASSHOPPER
This one is a little different...
Two Different Versions ...
Two Different Morals

OLD VERSION

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.

The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.

Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed.

The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.

MORAL OF THE OLD STORY:

Be responsible for yourself!


MODERN VERSION

The ant works hard in the withering heat and the rain all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.

The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.

Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while he is cold and starving..

CBS, NBC, PBS, CNN, and ABC show up to
provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper
next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food.

America is stunned by the sharp contrast.

How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?

Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper and everybody cries when they sing, 'It's Not Easy Being Green ..'

Occupy the Anthill stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where the news stations film the Black Lives Matter group singing, We shall overcome.

Then Reverend Al Sharpton has the group kneel down to pray for the grasshopper while he damns the ants. He later appears on MSNBC to complain that rich people do not care.

Former President Obama condemns the ant
and blames Donald Trump, President Bush 43, President Bush 41, President Reagan, Christopher Columbus, and the Pope for the grasshopper's
plight.

Nancy Pelosi & Chuck Schumer
exclaim in an interview on The View
that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the
grasshopper , and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.

Finally, the EEOC drafts the Economic Equity &
Anti-Grasshopper Act retroactive to the beginning of
the summer.

The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having; nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the Government Green Czar and given to the Grasshopper

The story ends as we see the grasshopper
and his free-loading friends finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government house he is in, which, as you recall, just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around them because the grasshopper doesn't maintain it.

The ant has disappeared in the snow, never to be seen again.

The grasshopper is found dead in a drug related incident, and the house, now abandoned, is taken
over by a gang of spiders who terrorize the ramshackle, once prosperous and peaceful, neighborhood.

The entire Nation collapses
bringing the rest of the free world with it.

MORAL OF THE STORY:

Be careful how you vote in 2020.

I've sent this to you because I believe that you are an ant not a grasshopper !

Make sure that you pass
this on to other ants
Don't bother sending
it on to any grasshoppers
because they wouldn't
understand it, anyway.
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      04-11-2019, 05:09 AM   #1249
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I've reached my conclusion. She is a hypocrite and just plain out of her mind.

ďThe far-right loves to drum up fear & resistance to immigrants. But have you ever noticed they never talk about whatís causing people to flee their homes in the first place? Perhaps thatís bc theyíd be forced to confront 1 major factor fueling global migration: Climate change.Ē

W. I. T. F?
Really? And to think people believe this and praise her 'knowledge.'
Dear lord.
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      04-11-2019, 05:14 AM   #1250
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Good God man...

Quote:
Originally Posted by gonzo View Post
I've reached my conclusion. She is a hypocrite and just plain out of her mind.
It took you this long?
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      04-11-2019, 06:28 AM   #1251
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Originally Posted by .2pdk View Post
It took you this long?
I took me this long as well.

For some reason, I thought that since she's in politics and articulate, she must have at least passed some kind of 'entry level' exam or bar perhaps.

Yes, I was wrong.

The scary thing is that there's a whole bunch of people, especially the young kids that actually believe what she's saying.
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      04-11-2019, 06:51 AM   #1252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mmmmQuattro View Post
I took me this long as well.

For some reason, I thought that since she's in politics and articulate, she must have at least passed some kind of 'entry level' exam or bar perhaps.

Yes, I was wrong.

The scary thing is that there's a whole bunch of people, especially the young kids that actually believe what she's saying.
I weep for the future...
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      04-12-2019, 05:40 AM   #1253
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AOC vs. Crenshaw

My money is on Crenshaw...
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      04-12-2019, 06:50 AM   #1254
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in a sort of related story......
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