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      04-14-2020, 02:48 PM   #1
Denis S
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Why in Russia there are so few coronavirus deaths?

Indeed, if you look at the statistics, the number of cases is unusually small at the moment.

The number of deaths is also very low. In any case, this is very unusual for a country with a fairly large population. There are many versions of such an anomaly
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispa...e-count-so-low
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/e...ntl/index.html

Do you have any ideas on this? Maybe you have any extraordinary assumptions?

Last edited by Denis S; 05-25-2020 at 01:25 PM..
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      04-14-2020, 03:00 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denis S View Post
Indeed, if you look at the statistics, the number of cases is unusually small at the moment.

The number of deaths is also very low. In any case, this is very unusual for a country with a fairly large population. There are many versions of such an anomaly
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispa...e-count-so-low
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/e...ntl/index.html

Do you have any ideas on this? Maybe you have any extraordinary assumptions?
Umm, because most countries, with the exception of China, try to be honest with their numbers?
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      04-14-2020, 03:03 PM   #3
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Probably the same reason North Korea also has very few cases.
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      04-14-2020, 03:05 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haywood View Post
Umm, because most countries, with the exception of China, try to be honest with their numbers?
Those. Russian figures understate the losses? Well - a good version. Another would be to find out the purpose of this?
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      04-14-2020, 03:10 PM   #5
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      04-14-2020, 03:18 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
Probably the same reason North Korea also has very few cases.
Do I understand correctly that your version about absolute isolation of Russia from the world? Good version also...

However, according to statistics for 9 months of 2019, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Russia reached 1.2 million... It is only a 2-fold less than the tourists who visited US in 2019 for example
All the Chinese people who visited Russia, happen to be healthy (or none of them was from Wuhan)?
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      04-14-2020, 04:12 PM   #7
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Even viruses donít want to go there
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      04-14-2020, 04:14 PM   #8
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I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Russia might just be fudging the numbers a little bit. Call me crazy Rhoda.
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      04-14-2020, 04:19 PM   #9
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One big reason is that they (apparently) completely stopped allowing people from China into their country in January. I remember reading this maybe the 1st or second week of January. It was a full stop. They didnt care about crazy people making it about race (all of whom only wish they could turn back time).
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      04-14-2020, 04:21 PM   #10
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correction it was Jan 30th, but it was a complete shutdown.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/coro...nt-spread.html
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      04-14-2020, 04:26 PM   #11
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2 words. Russian vodka. Hard to catch the 'Rona if you're being cleaned from the inside out.
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      04-14-2020, 04:38 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
2 words. Russian vodka. Hard to catch the 'Rona if you're being cleaned from the inside out.
Russian: corona doesn't suffocate me, I suffocate it.
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      04-14-2020, 05:25 PM   #13
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There's absolutely some number fudging going on. Lots of deaths written off as a regular "pneumonia". Serious doubts about the quality of Russian homegrown tests.

But even if you ignore that, there's also basic math. Russia started late because of its relative isolation from the rest of the world (international travel is negligible compared to European countries). But once the virus did take hold a couple of weeks ago, the progression has been absolutely scary. With all the quarantine measures and the totalitarian "passes" now invented by Moscow authorities, Russia is still solidly on an exponential curve, with each day's new cases at ~16% of the previous day's total (anyone who understands compound interest will know what this means).

Let's look at what this progression means for the future. It takes approximately 2-4 weeks from first symptoms and getting tested to being dead. Therefore, today's death count is based on the case counts of ~3 weeks ago, when Russia had ~30 times fewer cases than today. Unless something magical happens, Russia's death counts over the next three weeks will follow its case counts over the past three weeks, which at 1.16x daily growth and 170 deaths today gives us 1.16^21 * 170 = 3838. And if the case counts progress at the same rate, three weeks from now today's 21K cases will become 470K. I don't really think this is what will actually happen, but I also don't see how Russia will be able to stop the virus before taking the podium in case counts because the quarantine compliance is abysmal. It's the worst possible mix of the government which doesn't trust science and citizens who don't trust the government.

Compare this with Italy or Spain, where the daily new cases have been stable or falling for quite some time. It is now safe to predict that total cases for the first wave will be just a few thousands over today's count. And since the growth of that number is now relatively small compared to the total, the death count had a chance to "catch up" and the ratio of deaths/cases is much worse than Russia's.

Oh, and finally the overwhelming majority of cases have been in Moscow and its suburbs, where hospitals are kinda decent. Once the clusters in more rural areas blow up, expect the total third world picture like the shit we're seeing in Ecuador.
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      04-14-2020, 05:43 PM   #14
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Because they dont watch the news.
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      04-14-2020, 11:15 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sassicaia View Post
correction it was Jan 30th, but it was a complete shutdown.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/coro...nt-spread.html
Sooo- what's that... 1 day before President Trump did the same? Surely ~24 hours didn't make such a difference. Try again.
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      04-14-2020, 11:17 PM   #16
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The same reason it didn't jump to any of the major Chinese cities.

It's nowhere near as deadly as we're being lied to about. If it wasn't for the nonstop MSM fear driven porn, we'd think it was a slightly worse than average flu season.
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      04-14-2020, 11:20 PM   #17
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Obviously vodka. The answer is always vodka.
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      04-14-2020, 11:55 PM   #18
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They’re just getting started - cases growing significantly in the past week. They’ll unfortunately end up being another country that thought it was something that the rest of the world caught.
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      04-15-2020, 12:06 AM   #19
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made me think how many times Russian government was honest in the past with numbers etc.. reminding me the current government in Turkey..

well if you do small amount of tests, you get fewer cases..
if you write the cause of deaths not covid but something else, you get less deaths caused by covid on paper..
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      04-15-2020, 12:08 AM   #20
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There is something strange going on with the number of tests, too.

To date, they claim to have run 1.4 million tests and had only 21,000 positive results - see here. That rate of positives is well below any country that ever reported 2,500+ new cases per day (on the growth part of the curve).

It is almost as if their test has a lot of false negatives.
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      04-15-2020, 12:18 AM   #21
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      04-15-2020, 12:25 AM   #22
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Why is Russia so few cases of coronavirus infection?

Because Vladimir says there are so few cases of corona virus infection...

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