[WWM3]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Not "predicting" in an uncertain and chaotic environment is a good plan. Usually, I'd be ready to buy after a 10% drop in S&P and a Nasdaq down 14%, but that seems optimistic to me at this time.

I agree that cuts in government spending are only one piece of the equation. I think that tariff inflation, job losses and export headwinds are likely to weight more heavily in concert.

I'm with you.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

are folks still doubting a recession?

Anyone looking strictly at the circumstances would be hard pressed to "doubt" anything. Some may be looking at the market drops (or their portfolios) and hoping it is just a blip. Some may want to believe there is a plan and method in place, for personal reasons.

"Austerity" is what The EU practiced after the Great Recession, and more recently, which led to them lagging the U.S. pretty badly. It led to lower GDP, rising unemployment and lower inflation. This is essentially austerity. Perhaps there is a lesson in there somewhere? But, it was not coupled with lower exports and/or tariffs, which may not help inflation.

Is the lesson that there is no free lunch? Both literally and figuratively? I am all for containing our spending in a methodical and comprehensive fashion. Trying to unwind decades of overspending all at once, with a chainsaw, and ignoring the biggest contributors, is going to get interesting.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I'm not, but this coming recession is a bit "manufactured" I would say.

"Self-induced" word be my word of choice.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Anyone looking strictly at the circumstances would be hard pressed to "doubt" anything. Some may be looking at the market drops (or their portfolios) and hoping it is just a blip. Some may want to believe there is a plan and method in place, for personal reasons.

"Austerity" is what The EU practiced after the Great Recession, and more recently, which led to them lagging the U.S. pretty badly. It led to lower GDP, rising unemployment and lower inflation. This is essentially austerity. Perhaps there is a lesson in there somewhere? But, it was not coupled with lower exports and/or tariffs, which may not help inflation.

Is the lesson that there is no free lunch? Both literally and figuratively? I am all for containing our spending in a methodical and comprehensive fashion. Trying to unwind decades of overspending all at once, with a chainsaw, and ignoring the biggest contributors, is going to get interesting.

it's a bit hard for me to believe that ONLY current policies are driving this...

if you look at the unemployment report over many months, you'll see most job growth and hiring came from GOVT and Healthcare... white collar / professional jobs have not been good for at least 2 years.... and the number of people I know across ALL industries that I talk to that have been laid off is massive... with very little prospects in finding another good job that pays as well.

So fundamentally a huge part of the employed population is now slowly starting to be unemployed and losing the wage growth they've had... all while inflation has slowed down albeit still not within any accepted targets.

Housing market is effectively frozen right now as well...

All of those things have been true for months now... with only the stock market rolling up until the last month... now I think things will get worse but the downturn didn't start a month ago... unless folks solely look at their 401k... of which most america does unfortunately because they aren't well educated...

now none of these things define a recession... but if gdp turns negative.... then it will be seen in many metrics... i continue to be of the mindset that nothing since Covid has been real as prices are finally catching up to most consumers

[Mech Spec]

Originally Posted by ASAP

it's a bit hard for me to believe that ONLY current policies are driving this...

Desperately grasping for reasons that are not the obvious and demonstrable ones.

The only thing injecting uncertainty into the economy is the executive.

Originally Posted by ASAP

now I think things will get worse but the downturn didn't start a month ago...

Correct, it started around 2 months ago, cant really remember what happened to kick it off but I'm sure someone will remind me.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Mech Spec

Correct, it started around 2 months ago, cant really remember what happened to kick it off but I'm sure someone will remind me.

I feel you didnt read my post... if you look at the economy in vaccuum... ie stock market then you are right...

if you look at the economy as a whole which you should be... i've provided at least few examples above why it hasnt been rosy for months...

[kudos]

Anyone doubting recession and using GDP as a factor into their analysis perhaps may want to change course.

https://www.opb.org/article/2025/03/...economic-data/

The government recently disbanded two outside advisory committees that used to consult on the numbers, offering suggestions on ways to improve the reliability of the government data.

“You know the Commerce Department runs the statistics of GDP,” Lutnick told Fox News. “Governments historically have messed with GDP. They count government spending as part of GDP. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”

God help us all in figuring out the markets going forward.

[Mech Spec]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I feel you didnt read my post... if you look at the economy in vaccuum... ie stock market then you are right...

if you look at the economy as a whole which you should be... i've provided at least few examples above why it hasnt been rosy for months...

A recent survey of CEO's, what they say in private, not their public message.

But the Biden economy, as these CEOs that I just shared that data with you showed that 85% of them tell us that this is the strongest economy not only in their lifetime but the Biden economy they were handed was the strongest in American history and the strongest in the world. That's what 85% of CEOs say other than - no matter what Howard Lutnick says. We haven't had unemployment this low from the Biden years since "Bonanza" was the "No. 1" show on television in 1968.

How they feel about the current economy with the tariffs

SONNENFELD: Whereas the exact people, you know, a hundred of them, whether or not the CEOs of JPMorgan, Pfizer, Dell, Goodyear, Duke Energy, Stanley Black & Decker, Steelcase and others, ADP, American Airlines, they're going quite candidly with each other about what dismay they have. We also had 60 major city U.S. mayors with them to keep everybody honest.

They are very discouraged. Eighty percent of them said they find themselves apologizing to our international partners for Trump's capriciousness and 85% say the Biden economy that Trump was handed was a strong legacy. And roughly 70% say that the Trump administration is going to be bad for the economy, and they're very concerned. [...] 92% Of them say that they are increasingly concerned that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession.

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/13/nx-s1...s-and-whiplash

The drivers of the economy are more psychological than numbers. Numbers are the output, but psychology is the input.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Mech Spec

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/13/nx-s1-5325987/how-business-executives-are-feeling-about-economic-uncertainties-and-whiplash

The drivers of the economy are more psychological than numbers. Numbers are the output, but psychology is the input.

you will have to help me understand how a business executive / ceo feeling helps the average joe on the street which is having a tough time making ends meet and has been due to inflation...

[DrVenture]

I don't see the solution to people struggling with inflation to be creating more inflation. Or cutting white collar jobs in government to be the solution to unemployment. Those folks don't all live in D.C. Many will now be competing for those jobs in markets where opportunities may already be thin. Cannot see how that helps.

Without a deep dive into Florida's specific job market, I don't know what their problems may be. The BLS has lots of stats on each state. Locale specific circumstances may apply. I am not surprised there may be job mismatches in Florida, having a service industry heavy job market. And which part of the state matters a lot. This doesn't mean that overall statistics are flawed, just not very specific. Tampa , for instance, versus Ft Myers. Tech versus construction or health care.

https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeas...er_florida.htm

https://www.wlrn.org/business/2025-0...overnment-doge

"Federal workers across the country find themselves under aggressive scrutiny. Despite the close alignment of the state's Legislature and most of its voters to President Donald Trump, Florida is particularly vulnerable: it has one of the largest contingencies of federal jobs in the nation outside of the Washington, D.C., region."

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by Mech Spec

A recent survey of CEO's, what they say in private, not their public message.



How they feel about the current economy with the tariffs




https://www.npr.org/2025/03/13/nx-s1...s-and-whiplash

The drivers of the economy are more psychological than numbers. Numbers are the output, but psychology is the input.

To that point:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/univ...er%20sentiment

[Mech Spec]

Originally Posted by ASAP

you will have to help me understand how a business executive / ceo feeling helps the average joe on the street which is having a tough time making ends meet and has been due to inflation...

The average joe on the street has almost no bearing on whether we enter a recession or how long that recession will be. I'm not unsympathetic to that person's plight but they aren't an economic driver.

80-90 of 100+ CEO's, who collectively employ hundreds of thousands of american workers, feeling skittish about the economy due to tariffs and federal cuts causes the recession all by itself.

[DrVenture]

Agreed. These are the folks who plan corporate spending, hiring and firing. We all know that as soon as they start seeing profit numbers erode, the first step is to scrutinize spending and layoff workers. This will have follow-on impacts to suppliers as well.

[DrVenture]

Now even Elon Musk's companies are seeking tariff relief!

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/elon...n-tariffs.html

Remember when he said tariffs would help him and hurt his competitors, and was fine with that?

“While Tesla recognizes and supports the importance of fair trade, the assessment undertaken by USTR of potential actions to rectify unfair trade should also take into account exports from the United States,” said the letter, which was submitted by Tesla’s associate general counsel Miriam Eqab.

“U.S. exporters are inherently exposed to disproportionate impacts when other countries respond to U.S. trade actions.”

This assumes that the pooch hasn't already been well and truly screwed. That other nations have not had enough of Elon Musk, in general. That the brand is not already tarnished for the foreseeable future. Sales tanked here and overseas, and tariffs have not even taken effect yet.

[DrVenture]

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/...-trade-deficit

"Higher tariffs would unambiguously reduce real gross domestic product and would likely push inflation up, though the size of impact depends on other factors. Somewhat counterintuitively, we think they’re unlikely to help in reducing the trade deficit.

Real GDP measures the size of economic output, so any reduction in real GDP means a reduction in living standards for the average person. And if the hit to GDP is large enough, it could cross the threshold into recessionary territory, which is why appreciation of this risk is currently roiling equity prices.

We estimate that a full implementation of a 10% uniform tariff hike and 60% tariff hike for China would reduce the long-run level of US GDP by 1.6%."

[chassis]

So doc, what moves are you making with your money, based on all of the information you are so kindly copying and pasting?

[DrVenture]

I've been posting that for several months now. In summary, exchanging growth for value, selling growth in general. Buying MMF, ultra short bond funds and multi-sector bonds. Not sure it is very relevant now, with the market so far in decline. Is the worst over? Will someone blink? Will we trade at these levels for the rest of 2025? Are we going lower?

My gut instinct (worth exactly 2 cents), is we are going lower. Another 5% I am thinking. A 20% total drop for the Nasdaq and a 15% drop on the S&P, before things stabilize. What concerns me is that promised tariffs (and counter-tariffs) have yet to be applied. And the impact of 1st and 2nd quarter earnings yet to be realized. Nothing but my opinion.

At this point, I am about where I need to be in terms of stock allocations (much lower and a heavy value/core tilt). And I am thinking about when/if to move back in, depending on how things play out. If this is a long drawn out thing, I stay put. I am comfortable where I am right now (down 1% YTD). If the narrative changes, I execute my plan, which mainly involves shifting funds from cash, bonds and value to large cap growth and S&P. Nothing too complicated.