[mnx5er]

Here is the crazy side of all of this, BMW may well set a record for most X5s sold in a year. X3s will set a record.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/bmw-x5-sales-figures/

The car shortage is real for some models and companies. But -- cars have become the new toilet paper. "Shortages" can create markets and more panic buying which in turn creates more "shortages".

I'm sure BMW is selling more lower MSRP models due to options being unavailable, but they are more than making up for this with sales prices at MSRP or higher.

Here are YTD numbers for all companies - the recent slowdown is a combination if slowing production but more importantly lack of inventory.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2021-u...ures-by-brand/

Great time to be a BMW shareholder.

[iconoclast]

"Tesla Bumps Model S And Model X Prices Higher By $5,000 Each"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/te...gher-5000-each

[FCX5]

Originally Posted by iconoclast

"Tesla Bumps Model S And Model X Prices Higher By $5,000 Each"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/te...gher-5000-each

Yup. They even say they are raising prices, because of demand - i.e because they can. Tesla is a company that can literally get away with anything thing. Lowest quality cars, with highest customer satisfaction. Makes no sense, but there it is…

[jps3b]

Originally Posted by reli

I went through a Broker picking up tomorrow in PA - took about 4 weeks they had a build slot and allocation - 3% off MSRP + PendFed I'll take it in this market

That's great. I bet if you tried doing that today you wouldn't have the same success. You would be paying MSRP +

[allinon72]

That's why I laugh when people say "I'm not going to buy a car in this market, I'm going to wait until prices go back down." News flash, they aren't going back down. Just the inflation factor alone will keep prices high, not to mention chip and supply chain issues. We've been waiting for the inevitable "used car market crash" for going on 5 years now and it just keeps building.

Of course a large scale economic crash would reset prices, but not to the levels we're used to seeing 3 years ago. That would simply create a scenario where the auto market would collapse, at least in the US.

[FCX5]

Originally Posted by allinon72

That's why I laugh when people say "I'm not going to buy a car in this market, I'm going to wait until prices go back down." News flash, they aren't going back down. Just the inflation factor alone will keep prices high, not to mention chip and supply chain issues. We've been waiting for the inevitable "used car market crash" for going on 5 years now and it just keeps building.

Of course a large scale economic crash would reset prices, but not to the levels we're used to seeing 3 years ago. That would simply create a scenario where the auto market would collapse, at least in the US.

I think that's what people we also saying back in 2008 about the housing market. Human psychology is not to wait. It's why most Americans have very little savings - far to easy to convince them to consume at any price. My 2 cents worth. In the end, if the price is worth it to you, then it is worth spending. Some people will pay more and some won't. For some waiting is an option and for others it is not. I learnt from my dad, that patience is a virtue. It has helped me in my investing and many decisions in life…FWIW.

However, you could be right and the prices now are as low as they will ever be. We'll see.

[allinon72]

Originally Posted by FCX5

I think that's what people we also saying back in 2008 about the housing market. Human psychology is not to wait. It's why most Americans have very little savings - far to easy to convince them to consume at any price. My 2 cents worth. In the end, if the price is worth it to you, then it is worth spending. Some people will pay more and some won't. For some waiting is an option and for others it is not. I learnt from my dad, that patience is a virtue. It has helped me in my investing and many decisions in life…FWIW.

However, you could be right and the prices now are as low as they will ever be. We'll see.

Not to get too deep in the weeds, but this isn't me trying to be arrogant in saying the house of cards will never fall. They absolutely will. But economic factors are far different now than they were in '08, both in monetary policy, inflation, and global goals to phase the US out. Far different.

[FCX5]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Not to get too deep in the weeds, but this isn't me trying to be arrogant in saying the house of cards will never fall. They absolutely will. But economic factors are far different now than they were in '08, both in monetary policy, inflation, and global goals to phase the US out. Far different.

Could be. But high consumer debt and cheap debt are still common factors. The economy has cycles and so does the dollar. All supply chain disruptions are temporary since markets have a way to respond. A lot chip capacity is about to come online and if anything we could see a glut.

Also, if you look at the US treasury bond rate, which is an indicator of faith in the US economic system - it is pretty strong.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-...te-yield-chart

If you look at this spread between US and China. China, or others may want to replace the US but they haven't really moved the needle much in real terms…

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/...ates-10-years/

Just pointing this out since some of our media love to point to doom and gloom without providing proper context. In general, we are better off competitively than we we were in the 80s …by far! Again, not saying everything is peachy. Yes, inflation is a concern, but we're in a cycle.

Anyway, back to car prices. Yeah, they should come down, or I'll just buy something cheaper I can afford. LOL.

[fpliu]

This has been a real problem with all the dealers. Luckily I found a great dealer who values long term relationships. I managed to get this new 45e yesterday at exactly MSRP. Which I think was fair. But I think dealers who are marking up because of supply issues are not counting the resentment from buyers.

[GS2019]

the three dealerships I went to all had one or two X-line sDrive40i on their lot. None of them had any M-sports package RWD or AWD nor the 45e. I wanted to test-drive a 45e, but I think it's similar to sDrive40i.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by fpliu

dealers who are marking up because of supply issues are not counting the resentment from buyers.

Most don't care, especially corporate-owned shops because it's about their numbers today...

By the time that resentment depresses profits most managers/sales staff in place today will be at new dealerships and/or new jobs.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by allinon72

What is new or old doesn't set prices, what the customer demands sets prices. BMW could charge 80k for an entry level 45e right now given the demand, but they aren't. They've clearly made a conscience effort to keep costs in line with previous years, and I think they've done some of the best work at migrating the chip shortage compared to other manufacturers. For comparison, Cadillac nixed their SuperCruise system, their number one most anticipated feature. I think we are doing pretty good without some wireless charging pads

Huh?

It's pretty obvious that when a brand new car comes out with a $100k MSRP.....the average selling price is going to go way up for a manufacturer. That is the only reason Cadillac and Mercedes average selling price is so much higher over last year as opposed to BMW.

[fpliu]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Most don't care, especially corporate-owned shops because it's about their numbers today...

By the time that resentment depresses profits most managers/sales staff in place today will be at new dealerships and/or new jobs.

Totally correct. It's all about today. I told all of them I wouldn't play that game with them and they were welcome to find other buyers.

[buckybadger]

Originally Posted by bono

Once the chip shortage is gone, free market will kick in and competition will fix the market.

This will probably take 3-4 years.

[alewifebp]

Originally Posted by FCX5

You can still get pretty much any option on a Porsche. Their margins are much higher. For instance you can still get Bose or Burmeister audio no problems on Porsche. Although, Porsche is benefiting from huge demand due to easy credit and recent market returns etc etc.

When it comes down to parts availability, it isn't that the parts aren't simply available, it's that they aren't available at the price you want. Porsche as you say can pretty much charge what they want, and have lower volumes to contend with. So they can get the parts.

Not enough price elasticity on an X5 to raise prices too much before those buyers go to an X7 or some other brand.

[ChiTownM]

I will just wait it out for a couple of years since it hard to predict 24 months out. Lots of valid comments here, and I know I will not buy a car in this environment right now. Brand loyalty could become a thing in the past, why overprice for x if u can get a similar experience with y.

The used market is also impacted because I am not selling any of my cars either…

[iconoclast]

when everyone is marking up because of this situation then the experience is the same with X and Y or A or B or whomever is currently selling cars.

[fstezaws]

Picked up my M50i about 3 weeks ago. Flew out and drove 1000 miles back and happy I did. It is mostly loaded and met the spec I wanted minus massaging seats. I got about $6k off. MSRP was $93k, they had offered a discount and got an extra $3200 off on the USAA deal.

My local dealer has a used 2020, same spec almost with 15k miles for the same price I just paid for brand new. I would have also paid about $3k more in sales tax, so this saved me more than the $6k off MSRP. Also secured 1.8% financing for 60 months through US Bank, so I intentionally put very little money down

Just look around and if you're willing to travel, there are deals. Unsure on leasing deals though.

[YuicyYumboYack]

Originally Posted by fstezaws

My local dealer has a used 2020, same spec almost with 15k miles for the same price I just paid for brand new. I would have also paid about $3k more in sales tax, so this saved me more than the $6k off MSRP.

How did you save on sales tax if the selling price was the same across both cars?

[FCX5]

Originally Posted by ChiTownM

I will just wait it out for a couple of years since it hard to predict 24 months out. Lots of valid comments here, and I know I will not buy a car in this environment right now. Brand loyalty could become a thing in the past, why overprice for x if u can get a similar experience with y.

The used market is also impacted because I am not selling any of my cars either…

If you look at some of the recent companies earnings announcements what I can see is that some companies like Amazon, Apple and many consumer electronics companies that had massive 2020 growth because people were substituting outside the home spending with inside spending are seeing their growth softening. Apple may say they missed revenue due to supply chain issues, but it is also true that they currently have incredible offers to upgrade to their new phones. Car demand is at a peak now since people stopped buying them in 2020 and 2021 and early 2022 should be peaks. Also, we are seeing unemployment now at the lowest point since the pandemic so people that were not buying due to economic uncertainty are in the market. So I believe, just the business cycle will return to normal in around 6-9 months. Economic adjustments take 18-24 months…my 2 cents worth. People who wait will definitely be better off in terms of price and options. This applies to cars, houses etc etc. does not apply to Bitcoin. LOL.

Just my simple analysis…

[John925]

East Bay BMW in Pleasanton, CA let me order one at MSRP. In case anyone is in the Bay.

[Jagu]

Wow it’s some strange times when we feel good about buying at msrp.