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      02-24-2021, 01:31 PM   #1
MileHiGolfer
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Residuals - Anyone have a crystal ball?

I'm planning to order an X5 M50i to replace my M550i lease that expires in May. Looks like residual for 36/10 is 55%, which obviously isn't great. Any guesses as to where that number might head in the coming months? Do they generally creep up as the model slowly ages I assume? Don't suppose anyone has any data from the last gen?

As it stands I can get a good deal at 10% off, but with that residual and my build it's still a four figure payment, which the wife isn't thrilled with. May have to back off to the 40i even though I don't want to. I've had V8 envy before and I don't want it again.

Side note, OL codes also seem to be scarce these days. Think we may see some before May?
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      02-24-2021, 01:38 PM   #2
TXDroneRacer
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How do you get OL codes? I don't even know where they come from.
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      02-24-2021, 02:08 PM   #3
Auricom
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I doubt we'll see higher residuals on MY21 until late summer and before MY22 production starts this fall - and higher I mean 1%.

I don't think 10K/yr 57% residuals will be a thing until sometime in 2022.
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      02-24-2021, 02:45 PM   #4
MileHiGolfer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TXDroneRacer View Post
How do you get OL codes? I don't even know where they come from.
Normally you get one from an event of some kind, driving event, dealership shindig, etc. None of that going on now though, so I think they're scarce.
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      02-24-2021, 02:46 PM   #5
MileHiGolfer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Auricom View Post
I doubt we'll see higher residuals on MY21 until late summer and before MY22 production starts this fall - and higher I mean 1%.

I don't think 10K/yr 57% residuals will be a thing until sometime in 2022.
That's good insight - thanks! Sounds like it's bite the bullet or suffer from V8 envy for 3 years lol. An extra ~200/mo is tough to swallow.
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      02-24-2021, 04:31 PM   #6
Auricom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MileHiGolfer View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Auricom View Post
I doubt we'll see higher residuals on MY21 until late summer and before MY22 production starts this fall - and higher I mean 1%.

I don't think 10K/yr 57% residuals will be a thing until sometime in 2022.
That's good insight - thanks! Sounds like it's bite the bullet or suffer from V8 envy for 3 years lol. An extra ~200/mo is tough to swallow.
Wanted to clarify that my forecast was for 36 month leases with 10K/year.

You might consider a 24 month lease with 10K/year as an alternative option. This would provide a higher residual with the same Feb MF 0.00086. Ping the guys at Edmunds Forums to confirm the residual value:

https://forums.edmunds.com/discussio...-and-prices/p1

Ja, the last time I tracked X5 36 month, 10K/yr 57-58% residuals was end of year 2019 and early 2020 for MY20 X5s - pre-COVID.

MY20 X5s (excludes sDrive40i)
October to December 2020 MF 0.00082 - 10K 54%, 12K 53%, 15K 51%
June (MF 0.00118) and July to Sep 2020 (MF 0.00099) - 10K 55%, 12K 54%, 15K 52%
April to May 2020 MF 0.00118 - 10K 56%, 12K 55%, 15K 53%
February to March 2020 MF 0.00142 - 10K 57%, 12K 56%, 15K 54%
January 2020 MF 0.00137 - 10K 57%, 12K 56%, 15K 54%
December 2019 MF 0.00128 - 10K 58%, 12K 57%, 15K 55%

MY21 X5s (includes 45e, excludes sDrive40i)
January to February 2021 MF 0.00086 - 10K 55%, 12K 54%, 15K 52%
October to December 2020 MF 0.00082 - 10K 55%, 12K 54%, 15K 52%
September 2020 MF 0.00099 - 10K 56%, 12K 55%, 15K 53%
August 2020 MF 0.00099 - 10K 55%, 12K 54%, 15K 52%
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      02-25-2021, 11:19 AM   #7
MileHiGolfer
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Looks like the 24 month isn't going to make for a better payment, only 4 points or so higher residual based on someone else's inquiry.

That's great you tracked those - thanks! Surprised they got up to 58% on this new model, and now doesn't look like they'll budge from 55%.

Now I'm reading about this HK stereo shortage, which might be a deal killer anyway. I got the B&W in my M550i, and it's nice, but I planned to sacrifice that to keep my payment more reasonable this time. Regular hifi ain't gonna cut it.

I see you went with the 40i but also have an M550i to scratch that itch. Happy with the decision? I'm planning to drive the 40i and M50i this weekend, maybe I'll be surprised.
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      02-25-2021, 11:37 AM   #8
Auricom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MileHiGolfer View Post
Looks like the 24 month isn't going to make for a better payment, only 4 points or so higher residual based on someone else's inquiry.

That's great you tracked those - thanks! Surprised they got up to 58% on this new model, and now doesn't look like they'll budge from 55%.

Now I'm reading about this HK stereo shortage, which might be a deal killer anyway. I got the B&W in my M550i, and it's nice, but I planned to sacrifice that to keep my payment more reasonable this time. Regular hifi ain't gonna cut it.

I see you went with the 40i but also have an M550i to scratch that itch. Happy with the decision? I'm planning to drive the 40i and M50i this weekend, maybe I'll be surprised.
Ah, interesting on 24 month. Non-///M models usually launch with high residuals with high MF but BMWFS MF has been low compared other German and Japanese brands.

Ja happy with my decision on 40i M Sport, pre-COVID I was commuting 50 miles a day and 2 hours in the X5 but 60% city driving so 40i was right for me. Do I regret not getting a M50i? Nah no regrets - love my 40i - it has options I need... air suspension, IAS, M Sport, ivory/night blue interior and other stuff. I'm not baller in always needing to drive a V8.

When I feel the need for speed I'll pull out the M550i. It gets turned in at the same time as the X5, so I'll either stick with 40i or upgrade to M50i and custom order in Individual Ruby Red. Or go iX. I have a Lucid Air Touring on reserve to replace the M550i.
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      03-04-2021, 01:43 PM   #9
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Looks like residuals got worse by 1% from Feb to Mar. I guess that makes sense.
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      03-04-2021, 11:13 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TXDroneRacer View Post
How do you get OL codes? I don't even know where they come from.
here

https://forum.leasehackr.com/t/instr...de/111380/1816
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