Market predictions?

arovins · 09-14-2022, 10:23 AM

I'm starting to see some really nice discounts on X5s (upwards of 7.5%) off MSRP. Do you folks think prices will continue to fall with discounts in the double digits come the end of the year? I prefer the current interior vs the new ones so I'm trying to figure out the best time to jump on a 2023 build. Thanks in advance for your time and looking forward to some thoughts!

jiggie · 09-14-2022, 10:25 AM

Depends on Model/Trim. Probably will see some discounts on 40i sDrive's, but doubt much beyond that.

Chick Webb · 09-14-2022, 10:44 AM

I'm surprised you're seeing any at all. Around NorCal there's almost nothing available any longer. That said, dealers with '22 inventory are going to be very interested in getting it off their lots, so I can see where they'd be doing that. Perhaps the market is returning to a more "normal" state?

However, certainly the mid- to high-end of the BMW demographic is still only mildly affected by the macro economy, so I wouldn't expect much softening in the market for the 5/6/7/8s. The local (Monterey) dealer has a bunch of used cars - waaayyy more than a year ago - including a G-Wagon and several Porsches/Teslas, that haven't moved. Maybe we'll see some discounting there, first, followed by the 1/2/3/4s?

TurtleBoy · 09-14-2022, 06:27 PM

I think the discounts you are see are the exception and not the rule. We have been seeing some discounts on the 40i's recently but not much of anything on the 45e or M50i. Whether that continues or not depends highly on how fast and deep the economy tanks. Either way though, I don't think we will see the discounts at a level that we have in the past. Good deals used to be in the 8-10% range and I think on the future that will be 4-5%. I know some BMW brass have mentioned that their hope/vision is that there will be little to no discounting at all but of course they can only encourage and not mandate since dealers are independent businesses.

P1 · 09-14-2022, 09:46 PM

As others have mentioned, maybe on the 40i trim but not so much on all the other higher end trims.

MidnightBlue22 · 09-15-2022, 05:29 AM

There are definitely brokers offering 7.5% off msrp

P1 · 09-15-2022, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MidnightBlue22

There are definitely brokers offering 7.5% off msrp

The 45e is still the best deal.

$7,500 tax credit
$750 BMW FS loyalty
$750 Corporate Purchase Program

That equites to as much as 13% off MSRP.

TurtleBoy · 09-15-2022, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P1

The 45e is still the best deal.

$7,500 tax credit
$750 BMW FS loyalty
$750 Corporate Purchase Program

That equites to as much as 13% off MSRP.

Loyalty and Corporate can not be stacked, it is either one or the other.

GroundLoop · 09-15-2022, 02:29 PM

Just purchased a 2023 45e and negotiated $3000 discount and 3.99% financing. No trade in. First time BMW owner I called 5 different dealers. One dealer was not offering any discount. One $500 discount, two $1000 discount. And then finally $3000. Plus the $7500 tax credit.

TurtleBoy · 09-15-2022, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GroundLoop

Just purchased a 2023 45e and negotiated $3000 discount and 3.99% financing. No trade in. First time BMW owner I called 5 different dealers. One dealer was not offering any discount. One $500 discount, two $1000 discount. And then finally $3000. Plus the $7500 tax credit.

Welcome to the forum. That is good to hear. Maybe things are opening up quicker than we expected. We will have to see if this is a start of a trend.

brad_saggy · 09-15-2022, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GroundLoop

Just purchased a 2023 45e and negotiated $3000 discount and 3.99% financing. No trade in. First time BMW owner I called 5 different dealers. One dealer was not offering any discount. One $500 discount, two $1000 discount. And then finally $3000. Plus the $7500 tax credit.

This is surprising given how another member bmwakmg was struggling to find allocations in the Chicago suburbs. It's a great deal, especially when being able to combine with the 7500 credits! Even if discounts start to appear next year, the credits will disappear most likely for the typical family BMW affording families.

TurtleBoy · 09-15-2022, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_saggy

Even if discounts start to appear next year, the credits will disappear most likely for the typical family BMW affording families.

No BMWs will be eligible for the credit starting in January so hopefully that helps discounts.

Here is some interesting info on BMW owner demographics. The average household income is $124,800 so the income limits of the new credit rule won't come into play for the average buyer.

https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2019/...-demographics/

bmwakmg · 09-15-2022, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GroundLoop

Just purchased a 2023 45e and negotiated $3000 discount and 3.99% financing. No trade in. First time BMW owner I called 5 different dealers. One dealer was not offering any discount. One $500 discount, two $1000 discount. And then finally $3000. Plus the $7500 tax credit.

Are you in IL? What dealer did you go to?

GroundLoop · 09-15-2022, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmwakmg

Are you in IL? What dealer did you go to?

Yes. Zeigler in Orland Park. Laurel in Westmont was offering $1000 off.

bmwakmg · 09-15-2022, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GroundLoop

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmwakmg

Are you in IL? What dealer did you go to?

Yes. Zeigler in Orland Park. Laurel in Westmont was offering $1000 off.

Who in Laurel you talked to?

GroundLoop · 09-15-2022, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmwakmg

Who in Laurel you talked to?

Darrell Phillips. Nice guy. Been at Laurel for 28 years.

bmwakmg · 09-15-2022, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GroundLoop

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmwakmg

Who in Laurel you talked to?

Darrell Phillips. Nice guy. Been at Laurel for 28 years.

Thanks! If I am not going for car loan then they won't give discount?

GroundLoop · 09-15-2022, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmwakmg

Thanks! If I am not going for car loan then they won't give discount?

Not sure. I never mentioned financing before getting the price (discount) so it sounds like it does not matter. But he would do the 3.99% too. Which is really good considering the market now.

brad_saggy · 09-15-2022, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TurtleBoy

No BMWs will be eligible for the credit starting in January so hopefully that helps discounts.

Here is some interesting info on BMW owner demographics. The average household income is $124,800 so the income limits of the new credit rule won't come into play for the average buyer.

https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2019/...-demographics/

That's interesting. Thanks for sharing. Curious as to why the X5 45e won't qualify for the partial credits starting Jan 1 since it fulfills the NA assembly requirement

TurtleBoy · 09-15-2022, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_saggy

That's interesting. Thanks for sharing. Curious as to why the X5 45e won't qualify for the partial credits starting Jan 1 since it fulfills the NA assembly requirement

The battery requirements exclude it.

bmwakmg · 09-15-2022, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GroundLoop

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmwakmg

Who in Laurel you talked to?

Darrell Phillips. Nice guy. Been at Laurel for 28 years.

BTW what is your 45e configuration details?

GroundLoop · 09-15-2022, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmwakmg

BTW what is your 45e configuration details?

Wife chose the M sport package. Black exterior. Black interior with grey (forgot the color name) dash. Going to black out the chrome grill myself.

09-14-2022, 10:23 AM	#1
arovins mg340ac 9 Rep 22 Posts Drives: 2016 BMW 340i, 2023 BMW X5 Join Date: Jul 2017 Location: New Jersey iTrader: (0)	Market Predictions? I'm starting to see some really nice discounts on X5s (upwards of 7.5%) off MSRP. Do you folks think prices will continue to fall with discounts in the double digits come the end of the year? I prefer the current interior vs the new ones so I'm trying to figure out the best time to jump on a 2023 build. Thanks in advance for your time and looking forward to some thoughts!
	Appreciate 0 Tweet Quote

09-14-2022, 10:25 AM	#2
jiggie Captain 451 Rep 895 Posts Drives: BMW X5 45e Join Date: Jan 2022 Location: TX iTrader: (0)	Depends on Model/Trim. Probably will see some discounts on 40i sDrive's, but doubt much beyond that.
	Appreciate 1 arovins8.50 Quote

09-14-2022, 10:44 AM	#3
Chick Webb Private First Class 1242 Rep 132 Posts Drives: '10 E92, '17 540i, '21 X6 M50i Join Date: Sep 2021 Location: CA iTrader: (0)	I'm surprised you're seeing any at all. Around NorCal there's almost nothing available any longer. That said, dealers with '22 inventory are going to be very interested in getting it off their lots, so I can see where they'd be doing that. Perhaps the market is returning to a more "normal" state? However, certainly the mid- to high-end of the BMW demographic is still only mildly affected by the macro economy, so I wouldn't expect much softening in the market for the 5/6/7/8s. The local (Monterey) dealer has a bunch of used cars - waaayyy more than a year ago - including a G-Wagon and several Porsches/Teslas, that haven't moved. Maybe we'll see some discounting there, first, followed by the 1/2/3/4s?
	Appreciate 2 arovins8.50 Jrg317022.00 Quote

09-14-2022, 06:27 PM	#4
TurtleBoy General 13275 Rep 19,805 Posts Drives: 2019 X5 40i,2021 M340i Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Colorado iTrader: (0)	I think the discounts you are see are the exception and not the rule. We have been seeing some discounts on the 40i's recently but not much of anything on the 45e or M50i. Whether that continues or not depends highly on how fast and deep the economy tanks. Either way though, I don't think we will see the discounts at a level that we have in the past. Good deals used to be in the 8-10% range and I think on the future that will be 4-5%. I know some BMW brass have mentioned that their hope/vision is that there will be little to no discounting at all but of course they can only encourage and not mandate since dealers are independent businesses. __________________ 2021 BMW G20 M340i xDrive - Verde Ermes/Black - 03/2024.40 2019 BMW G05 X5 xDrive40i - Phytonic Blue/Cognac - 11/2023.50
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09-14-2022, 09:46 PM	#5
P1 Lieutenant General 11572 Rep 11,136 Posts Drives: 2004 3/4 ton Duramax Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: United States iTrader: (1)	As others have mentioned, maybe on the 40i trim but not so much on all the other higher end trims.
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09-15-2022, 05:29 AM	#6
MidnightBlue22 New Member 6 Rep 14 Posts Drives: x3 m40 Join Date: Mar 2022 Location: USA iTrader: (0)	There are definitely brokers offering 7.5% off msrp
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09-15-2022, 02:29 PM	#9
GroundLoop New Member 8 Rep 20 Posts Drives: Many Join Date: Sep 2022 Location: Frankfort, IL iTrader: (0)	Just purchased a 2023 45e and negotiated $3000 discount and 3.99% financing. No trade in. First time BMW owner I called 5 different dealers. One dealer was not offering any discount. One $500 discount, two $1000 discount. And then finally $3000. Plus the $7500 tax credit.
	Appreciate 0 Quote