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      01-09-2020, 10:11 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
Flybigjet, could probably answer this. But I would guess an anti air missile or artillery from further away would be detectable by foreign radar or satallite.

If you were trying to hide the takedown, you would use something that would A. be harder to detect and B. be easier to blame on others.

You couldn't blame a traditional anti air missile on a rougue terrorist group, if needed.
I'm going to go with Iran military responsible and it was an accident, 70% chance. I have manpad from a bad actor pegged at a 2% chance. Mechanical issue at 10%. "Other" trending to 18%.
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      01-09-2020, 10:51 AM   #68
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The Iranians don't want Boeing involved because they (the Iranians) likely accidentally shot down the plane. Simple as that.
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      01-09-2020, 11:03 AM   #69
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US intelligence are now reporting that it is likely that Iran used a Russian anti-aircraft missile (Gauntlet) to accidentally shoot this flight down.

https://www.cbsnews.com
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      01-09-2020, 11:09 AM   #70
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Iranians claim black box is damage, loss of date/memory
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      01-09-2020, 11:13 AM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
US intelligence are now reporting that it is likely that Iran used a Russian anti-aircraft missile (Gauntlet) to accidentally shoot this flight down.

https://www.cbsnews.com
Non video version

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rt/4419263002/
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      01-09-2020, 11:14 AM   #72
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Iranians claim black box is damage, loss of date/memory
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      01-09-2020, 11:20 AM   #73
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Iranians claim black box is damage, loss of date/memory
Of course they do................
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      01-09-2020, 11:29 AM   #74
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      01-09-2020, 11:34 AM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Blood View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
Flybigjet, could probably answer this. But I would guess an anti air missile or artillery from further away would be detectable by foreign radar or satallite.

If you were trying to hide the takedown, you would use something that would A. be harder to detect and B. be easier to blame on others.

You couldn't blame a traditional anti air missile on a rougue terrorist group, if needed.
I'm going to go with Iran military responsible and it was an accident, 70% chance. I have manpad from a bad actor pegged at a 2% chance. Mechanical issue at 10%. "Other" trending to 18%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system


https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/4419263002
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      01-09-2020, 11:46 AM   #76
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I am betting they will blame terrorists in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.....
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      01-09-2020, 11:52 AM   #77
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I suspect you're right and thats essentially what I said earlier. Regardless, we will never know the truth about the decision to fire a missile and the conspiracy theorists will be working overtime on this.
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      01-09-2020, 12:27 PM   #78
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Pentagon and Ukraine say most likely unintentional downing by Tor M-1 (SA-15).
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      01-09-2020, 12:36 PM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gonzo View Post
Pentagon and Ukraine say most likely unintentional downing by Tor M-1 (SA-15).
Did any aid get withheld to make sure both statements would be identical? Haha I kid I kid
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      01-09-2020, 12:44 PM   #80
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It's possible that TWO Tor missiles were fired possibly from Parandak Garrison home to 23rd Takavar division islamic republic of Iran army which is very close to where the doomed flight passed.
Witnesses have said they heard two very loud noises from the direction of the garrison before the aircraft crashed and a section of tor rocket was found further on in line from as it would be if fired from garrison.

Last edited by M5theonlyone; 01-09-2020 at 12:56 PM..
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      01-09-2020, 01:42 PM   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
Iran is now claiming the cockpit voice recorder is damaged. If they are not responsible why within minutes of the plane crash they claimed engine failure?
They picked it up first so they could damage it to the point of it being useless
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      01-09-2020, 01:55 PM   #82
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      01-09-2020, 02:04 PM   #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalS2k View Post
Did any aid get withheld to make sure both statements would be identical? Haha I kid I kid
Ok, that is funny, good one.
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      01-09-2020, 02:06 PM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post

Off topic, but I am curious. Do you know if some EL AL planes have anti missle detection? I have heard rumors, but not sure if true.
I've heard those rumors-- I'll have to look closer next time I see an El Al jet--- there are some "magic" laser countermeasure devices that have been proposed for civil aircraft, but weight and complexity (and pilot training) have always prevented their deployment-- at least on a large scale like the US civil fleet. El Al might be able to get away with it.

For a flare system, you'd want to look on the lower fuselage of the front of the aircraft and at the base of the tail for optical sensors. Then, usually the flare buckets are under the nose and in the trailing edge flap fairing of the wing. I'd be sort of surprised if El Al had flares, since they're munitions and civil authorities get a little wiggy when you part things that have the potential to go "Boom" right up next to a terminal and a jetway.

But the laser system? Possible I suppose.

One thing to consider is that El Al pilots are all retired military-- it breeds a *very* different mindset than that of a straight-up civilian pilot.

The Israeli's know how to go into harms way and mitigate the danger if needed.

I learned a long time ago to never bet against them-- they have their sh*t in one sock.

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      01-09-2020, 02:07 PM   #85
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Wow, even Trudeau is saying the Canadians have intelligence it was shot down.
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      01-09-2020, 02:16 PM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
Wow, even Trudeau is saying the Canadians have intelligence it was shot down.
I have it on pretty good authority that Canadian intelligence consists mainly of reading stuff on Twitter and then regurgitating it.

So I wouldn't put too much stock in that...
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      01-09-2020, 02:24 PM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joekerr View Post
I have it on pretty good authority that Canadian intelligence consists mainly of reading stuff on Twitter and then regurgitating it.

So I wouldn't put too much stock in that...
Ha +1

In case anyone wants a bit of a read about it

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...inian-airliner

Video of specific interest showing possible missle hit:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bellingca...52457972404226

Last edited by Canuckles; 01-09-2020 at 02:56 PM..
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      01-09-2020, 02:51 PM   #88
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So the media keeps calling this an accident or mistake, and then many of them are trying to put this on the US and on Trump specifically.

This was not an accident or a mistake, a mistake can be undone, thats why they put erasers on pencils. At the very least this is negligence, on the part of Iranian military & air traffic control and possibly on the Ukrainian airline for making the decision to take off given that other airlines were diverting.
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