[eelnoraa]

Originally Posted by -Vanguard-

Yep, like I said, MB sold more units in 2022 and its not even over yet compared to 2019 pre pandemic.

And these assholes have the nerve to charge a "market adjustment" when they are selling more cars than ever before LMAO.

There is no supply shortage, just an abundance of fucking stupid people.

It is exactly what I have been saying. How much is actually shortage? Definitely some are there. How much is actually hype? Of course there are good portion too. Numbers speak.

Overall, I think 21 has no to minimal shortage. 22 however, may really have some issue. Here is the 1st season sales number for the top manufacturers. Most are in double digit negative. Tesla is 66% up. BMW kind of break even.

[-Vanguard-]

I get the whole wires and chips from ukraine thing, but all these manufacturers have already shifted production elsewhere. The shortage is over.

[BMW003E]

The whole new car market is crazy. We've been looking for a new mini-van for my wife to haul our dogs around. We looked at Kias, Hondas and Toyotas. The dealers around our area all have $6K markups for a fricken minivan! Even saw a $4K markup on a Kia Forte! We even saw a used 2021 Sienna with 20K miles for $50K (but then ruled out the Sienna because the middle row is not removable). We found an Odyssey for MSRP, but we'll have to go a couple of hours outside the Bay Area to pick it up.

[ScaldedDog]

What there is an abundance of is money. There is $5T floating around the economy that didn't exist two and a half years ago. These markups are just an outgrowth of that. Supply shortages exacerbated the effect, but they were not the root cause.

Mark

[eelnoraa]

Originally Posted by ScaldedDog

What there is an abundance of is money. There is $5T floating around the economy that didn't exist two and a half years ago. These markups are just an outgrowth of that. Supply shortages exacerbated the effect, but they were not the root cause.

Mark

Yes well said well said

[TurtleBoy]

Originally Posted by ScaldedDog

What there is an abundance of is money. There is $5T floating around the economy that didn't exist two and a half years ago. These markups are just an outgrowth of that. Supply shortages exacerbated the effect, but they were not the root cause.

Mark

I would disagree with that. We didn't see these adjustments until the supply chain issues.

[ScaldedDog]

Originally Posted by TurtleBoy

I would disagree with that. We didn't see these adjustments until the supply chain issues.

We'll have to agree to disagree. There's no reliable way to separate exactly when supply issues ramped, as they varied by industry and product, and when all that money hit the economy. There is zero doubt that all that money is driving inflation, and these markups are just a specific expression of inflation.

What I don't understand is why automakers are not much quicker about adjusting MSRP and wholesale prices to reflect market conditions. Why leave that money on the table for dealers to collect? I guess it may have to do with the contracts manufacturers have with their dealer networks. Whatever the reason, it seems to be a pricing model ripe for disruption.

Mark

[Nuckle]

ADM will come down when people are not willing to pay it. Plain and simple. Fall of 2021 people were buying LR Defenders for sticker and selling them a day later for plus $20k. You think the dealers are going to keep watching that and do nothing?

[eelnoraa]

Would sale number be a good indication if cars were/are lacking? Take RR in 2021 as example, they sell 15% more car than 2020. So there is no reason for people to be able to flip RR for 20k in 2021. It is a luxury brand, demand don’t list increase by 15% all of sudden. Other than people in general got more disposable income, I don’t have a good reason to explain it.

Now for 2022, the story is different. We can easy see 1st half sale number drop significantly for the big players, like Toyota. This makes me think, they definitely cannot make enough.

[JK479]

Originally Posted by -Vanguard-

I went into Range Rover this weekend and even before I could look at the new RR Sport they sales guy said "just so you know these have a market adjustment of 30K over sticker"

I laughed at him and walked out that dealership- Freeport Lard Rover in NY.

Yes, I know this is a BMW forum, but I wanted to see the launch edition with the N63 BMW engine.

They said those are 50K over sticker and the normal 6cyl are 30K over sticker.

Complete clowns. I cant wait for dealerships to fail and companies to start going direct to consumer like Tesla.

These people are complete scum.

They are- 30,000 is a small suv. I don't wish negative things on people but when we do land in a recession where SUV's are out of fashion- it's going to be 10,000 off msrp. Now when they will happen? I'm not sure.

The rich only have so much to spend before they aren't comfortable paying more than they should.

That being said- I know two people who paid msrp on the new RR in MA and RI. So it's relationship based for some and the stealer doesn't hurt all their clients. Just new ones… like us!

[TurtleBoy]

Originally Posted by ScaldedDog

We'll have to agree to disagree. There's no reliable way to separate exactly when supply issues ramped, as they varied by industry and product, and when all that money hit the economy. There is zero doubt that all that money is driving inflation, and these markups are just a specific expression of inflation.

Yes, we will have to agree to disagree on that and the inflation statement. The ADM's are not inflation related but rather supply/demand.

[MJBradley1967]

Originally Posted by ScaldedDog

What there is an abundance of is money. There is $5T floating around the economy that didn't exist two and a half years ago. These markups are just an outgrowth of that. Supply shortages exacerbated the effect, but they were not the root cause.

Mark

In other words, "because we can".

I can't quite remember exactly when it was, but maybe several years ago now, there was a "push" by most car manufacturers to get their dealers under control regarding this very thing, ie: price gouging.

Clearly that went well.

[ScaldedDog]

A couple of interesting reads from investor-oriented sources. The first predicts the mess we are currently in, including the continued printing of money into 2022. The second, from the guy who manages over $200B in assets, talks about how to ride out the storm, but gives a little history in the process.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/448...ues-rapid-pace

https://creativeplanning.com/insight...conomic-cycle/

Mark

[mkenny28]

Just to add to the overall conversation, One of my best friends is a Global Director of Product Management in his company's Automotive division for Microprocessors and he explained a lot of what was going on with at least that portion of the shortages. His division made chips exclusively for car manufacturers globally. These chips go in everything from seat controls to sound systems to trip computers etc. When things really hit hard a ton of their orders were just straight up cancelled along with commitments for future years. They had to pivot and get their chips sold so they moved to phones, computing, IOT products, office equipment etc. When the manufacturers came crawling back they had to get in the back of the line until they could finish their current manufacturing commitments.

Now this is just one of many suppliers so it might be a unique situation but it feels like it was a pretty common one.

[jiggie]

There was and still is a shortage due to catching up. Manufacturing is lagged on most of silicon related technology products by 6-18 months at a minimum. It's not something that was just made up to keep things inflated. I work closely with Supply Chain in an industry that is directly impacted by a lot of the same components. Most companies in the tech impacted industries are only starting to receive orders for things purchased over a year ago.

[Keithwand]

Started looking in Jan 2022 to replace my 2016 X5 with 48k miles.
Bmw Ocala where I bought my car from wanted 5k markup over MSRP and 3k of add on.
Finally last June bmw Wesley Chapel called and had msport come in with all my important options. Arctic Gray over black with 21s and only missing the crystal package and blue m sport brakes. No big deal. Paid MSRP plus 500. For mats.
Great car.

[FireMedic]

Back in May I put 1k down on a 45e and received 2k off MSRP. They would not budge from that. The CA told me that is where they were at on any 45e's at that time and mentioned there were quite a few people on the list. He was brutally honest and said if I don't buy it, someone else will. I felt somewhat defeated but looking at what some others went through, I feel a bit better. When we went to take delivery (12 weeks later)the CA mentioned used car sales are currently tanking. People are buying out their lease and keeping cars. They don't want to wait for delivery and I would guess too that people don't want to pay close to MSRP on new vehicles. My guess is that there will be a lot of used cars on the market in a couple years when more people go back to trading in vehicles.
Just like the housing market, things are shifting quickly.

[viperdoc]

Originally Posted by FireMedic

Back in May I put 1k down on a 45e and received 2k off MSRP. They would not budge from that. The CA told me that is where they were at on any 45e's at that time and mentioned there were quite a few people on the list. He was brutally honest and said if I don't buy it, someone else will. I felt somewhat defeated but looking at what some others went through, I feel a bit better. When we went to take delivery (12 weeks later)the CA mentioned used car sales are currently tanking. People are buying out their lease and keeping cars. They don't want to wait for delivery and I would guess too that people don't want to pay close to MSRP on new vehicles. My guess is that there will be a lot of used cars on the market in a couple years when more people go back to trading in vehicles.
Just like the housing market, things are shifting quickly.

That was my situation as well...had a dealer I used twice in the past 2 years for a new 45e and X7. They would still give me 2% of MSRP of a new 2023 45e build. We needed a third vehicle and had heartburn about spending another $80k on another 45e, but after shopping and looking at what KIAs and Hyundais were going for, I am happy I got the vehicle when i did....with the $7500 tax rebate intact for 2022 as well

[JimVR4]

Originally Posted by mkenny28

Just to add to the overall conversation, One of my best friends is a Global Director of Product Management in his company's Automotive division for Microprocessors and he explained a lot of what was going on with at least that portion of the shortages. His division made chips exclusively for car manufacturers globally. These chips go in everything from seat controls to sound systems to trip computers etc. When things really hit hard a ton of their orders were just straight up cancelled along with commitments for future years. They had to pivot and get their chips sold so they moved to phones, computing, IOT products, office equipment etc. When the manufacturers came crawling back they had to get in the back of the line until they could finish their current manufacturing commitments.

Now this is just one of many suppliers so it might be a unique situation but it feels like it was a pretty common one.

This has also been my view for some time now. Commodity chip orders cancelled and lines re-tooled for higher margin products. It is very difficult to get those commodity chips back now as you don't want to build new fabs for them.

[-Vanguard-]

Im sorry but how can you guys buy into this supply and demand bullshit?

These car manufacturers are SELLING MORE CARS THIS YEAR THAN PRE COVID.

I have quite a lot of dealerships around me and their lots are PACKED with cars. BMW has to have 100+ cars here in NY, 3 different dealers. Mercedes lot is full with cars too. Even the Land Rover lot is maxed out, I couldnt even park anywhere cause it was filled with new cars.

These dealers are trying to fucking consumers. Manufacturers are sending them the same or more cars than usual.

This is not a supply issue- not anymore and the prices today are worse than the peak of the actual supply issues mid pandemic. Dealers are trying to fuck over as many people as possible before the real recession hits and people cant afford a new car.

[Jrg3170]

Originally Posted by -Vanguard-

Im sorry but how can you guys buy into this supply and demand bullshit?

These car manufacturers are SELLING MORE CARS THIS YEAR THAN PRE COVID.

I have quite a lot of dealerships around me and their lots are PACKED with cars. BMW has to have 100+ cars here in NY, 3 different dealers. Mercedes lot is full with cars too. Even the Land Rover lot is maxed out, I couldnt even park anywhere cause it was filled with new cars.

These dealers are trying to fucking consumers. Manufacturers are sending them the same or more cars than usual.

This is not a supply issue- not anymore and the prices today are worse than the peak of the actual supply issues mid pandemic. Dealers are trying to fuck over as many people as possible before the real recession hits and people cant afford a new car.

@vanguard source for this data? I don't believe this is true at least for total domestic auto production (domestic defined as assembled in the US). I'm not sure what those charts shared yesterday in Japanese were?

This supply shortage is further exacerbated by faster uptake / adoption of EVs than manufacturers were expecting. Many more chips per EV than an ICE. See source 2 for a good report out from BCG on upward revisions to EV sales forecasts.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAUPSA

BCG report: https://www.bcg.com/publications/202...ding-next-gear

[-Vanguard-]

Originally Posted by Jrg3170

@vanguard source for this data? I don't believe this is true at least for total domestic auto production (domestic defined as assembled in the US). I'm not sure what those charts shared yesterday in Japanese were?

This supply shortage is further exacerbated by faster uptake / adoption of EVs than manufacturers were expecting. Many more chips per EV than an ICE. See source 2 for a good report out from BCG on upward revisions to EV sales forecasts.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAUPSA

BCG report: https://www.bcg.com/publications/202...ding-next-gear

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/bmw-us-sales-figures/

There you go bud

Only 6 months of data, but you can look at the numbers and they will be crushing it this year. Hell even in 2021 they crushed it compared to pre covid #s.

This market adjustment shit is nonsense.

Here is Mercedes CRUSHING pre covid numbers.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/mercedes-benz-us-figures/

Heres KIA who is doing 5 figure market adjustments on their cars too...CRUSHING sales this year

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/kia-us-sales-figures/