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      05-29-2019, 10:01 AM   #133
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Anyone know how much a 2019 X5 would roughly be worth 7 years from now with 161,000 miles on it? Reading where BMW are one of worst cars to hold their value so Im trying to understand how buying these cars is a good investment as stated earlier. To me leasing is the way to go. Its just math and even if your a high mileage driver the numbers appear to be in your favor to lease. Yeah you can say you bought and owned the car but so what. You now own something that has little value.
That equates to 23k miles a year, in that scenario leasing would be much more expensive than purchasing. In almost all scenarios leasing is more expensive but you have to look at the details of each situation and use appropriate forecasts of future rates, prices, maintenance, etc. No blanket statement is correct one way or the other.
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      05-29-2019, 10:24 AM   #134
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I want to jump into this whole lease vs. buy conversation. I was about to get into my first ever lease but still decided to stick with buying as I've always been doing, and here's why. Let's say total car price P = A + B where A is price at the end of lease and B is differential car value lost over the lease term.

1. When leasing, you still pay interest on whole A + B amount (at least where I live) even though you are paying off entire B amount. So pretty much the same interest as finance, although lease interest is generally higher, for example currently 2.99% finance vs. 4.49% lease on X5 in Canada. Yes you can do MSDs, but it's still temporarily giving away your money while making you more dependent at lease return time.

2. Yes you are paying more monthly when financing, but at the end you are building yourself "trade-in" capital that's going to work for you all years ahead. This is also why I don't want to lease because I can't now use this trade in value effectively for my lease.

3. Leasing adds some more fees. One of them is lease return insurance of ~ $1,500 where they turn blind eye on some extra wear and tear / "damages". You can skip it though but it adds some risk of ending up with car return fees, which can be rather high on the luxury car. Plus you need to put brand new tires on it so add here another ~ $1,500. Trading in you can just have "some" life remaining on your tires.

4. Of course mileage limitation where you always need to watch for how much you can drive "your" car, always reminding you it's not really your car after all.

5. At lease return you are pressured by time to get a new car and can't really have a freedom of making a sound financial decision of for example waiting for a new model year couple more months, or simply do some extra shopping around. THEY know it, and THEY will take advantage of it! With the trade in, you can just walk away at any moment during your negotiation. With lease return if you don't lease again, they will likely penalize you with some extra damages payments.

6. So basically with lease you are "on the hook" for a lot of things, and I hate this feeling.

7. You can still drive new car every 4 - 5 years while owning vs. leasing. And end up having more money in your pocket. If you want even "more" money, just own it for extra few years. It's your decision after all. If the new car sensation is so much burning you, go ahead after 4 years, at this point you still save on lease fees + interest + car return fees + tires + negotiation leverage. It's at least $10k - $15k in my estimate combined, if not more.

8. ONLY two things that's giving me concerns with this lease vs. own thing - 1) If I get into some serious accident, even after fully repaired my car will lose trade in value while lease will just go back to the dealer. Well, I guess it the risk you need to accept for the better financial decision. 2) If the new car has issues or you don't like it, you just get rid of it at lease end. Of course you can still trade it in, so it's less of an issue. It's just easier to live with it, knowing it's not your car after all.

So at the end I see owning as a better financial decision. Now if let's say you can charge lease back to your business it's whole another story, but generally owning is still better.
Great conversation!

1. True fact, although often offset by high residual numbers by BMW and higher lease credit/incentives.

2. You pay sales tax on whole amount (you can never get it back on trade, 10% tax in our state) and losing opportunity value of investing money. Less of concern for states with low sales tax. For my case of M3, sales tax on purchase would be 7k, almost a third of total cost of lease already (27k).

3. I don't purchase this coverage. Also, you don't need to return with brand new tires, just passable 4/32. Exactly same for trade-in actually, you get dinged on value for every cosmetic or other issue, including worn tires. Also would you not fix scratches on car even if you own it? I would.

Also, people invest in PPF and other protections for car paint to last long time, no need with lease, money saved. Same with extended warranties people buy.

4. True for some situations, in my case I had more miles left close to the end and couldn't burn enough

I'd say this is the main hard blocker for leasing, high mileage (or very low mileage) needs - better purchase car outright.

5. Leasing adds timing issues. You can extend lease by up to 6 months on same terms if waiting for new model. Can get rid of lease on swapalese too.

6. See argument 3. Lease return criteria is very reasonable and similar to how many would keep the car (especially nice car) likely anyway.

7. 4-5 years would be advantage in less case for many situations. Don't forget maintenance costs, new tires/breaks/etc every X miles while owning car. I'm not even talking about unplanned repairs.

8. This benefit also worth some. + gap insurance covers your losses in case car gets totaled. There was gentleman on M3 forum whose car got hit by another person 1 month into lease, lost only 1 payment. Would have lost at least 10-15k if purchased (sales tax + difference between purchase cost and totalled payment from insurance). How's that not smart financial decision with leasing?

For cars I leased, total cost ownership including depreciation and rest of above, by the time you trade it in, it ends up being more money sunk (lost) than with leasing. People put positive emotional feeling of owning, but at the end of the day it's about losing money over time in either case and minimizing total transaction regardless how it's called. It's not like owning appreciating asset e.g. house.
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      05-29-2019, 10:36 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by AustinV View Post
I want to jump into this whole lease vs. buy conversation. I was about to get into my first ever lease but still decided to stick with buying as I've always been doing, and here's why. Let's say total car price P = A + B where A is price at the end of lease and B is differential car value lost over the lease term.

1. When leasing, you still pay interest on whole A + B amount (at least where I live) even though you are paying off entire B amount. So pretty much the same interest as finance, although lease interest is generally higher, for example currently 2.99% finance vs. 4.49% lease on X5 in Canada. Yes you can do MSDs, but it's still temporarily giving away your money while making you more dependent at lease return time.

2. Yes you are paying more monthly when financing, but at the end you are building yourself "trade-in" capital that's going to work for you all years ahead. This is also why I don't want to lease because I can't now use this trade in value effectively for my lease.

3. Leasing adds some more fees. One of them is lease return insurance of ~ $1,500 where they turn blind eye on some extra wear and tear / "damages". You can skip it though but it adds some risk of ending up with car return fees, which can be rather high on the luxury car. Plus you need to put brand new tires on it so add here another ~ $1,500. Trading in you can just have "some" life remaining on your tires.

4. Of course mileage limitation where you always need to watch for how much you can drive "your" car, always reminding you it's not really your car after all.

5. At lease return you are pressured by time to get a new car and can't really have a freedom of making a sound financial decision of for example waiting for a new model year couple more months, or simply do some extra shopping around. THEY know it, and THEY will take advantage of it! With the trade in, you can just walk away at any moment during your negotiation. With lease return if you don't lease again, they will likely penalize you with some extra damages payments.

6. So basically with lease you are "on the hook" for a lot of things, and I hate this feeling.

7. You can still drive new car every 4 - 5 years while owning vs. leasing. And end up having more money in your pocket. If you want even "more" money, just own it for extra few years. It's your decision after all. If the new car sensation is so much burning you, go ahead after 4 years, at this point you still save on lease fees + interest + car return fees + tires + negotiation leverage. It's at least $10k - $15k in my estimate combined, if not more.

8. ONLY two things that's giving me concerns with this lease vs. own thing - 1) If I get into some serious accident, even after fully repaired my car will lose trade in value while lease will just go back to the dealer. Well, I guess it the risk you need to accept for the better financial decision. 2) If the new car has issues or you don't like it, you just get rid of it at lease end. Of course you can still trade it in, so it's less of an issue. It's just easier to live with it, knowing it's not your car after all.

So at the end I see owning as a better financial decision. Now if let's say you can charge lease back to your business it's whole another story, but generally owning is still better.
Great conversation!

1. True fact, although often offset by high residual numbers by BMW and higher lease credit/incentives.

2. You pay sales tax on whole amount (you can never get it back on trade, 10% tax in our state) and losing opportunity value of investing money. Less of concern for states with low sales tax. For my case of M3, sales tax on purchase would be 7k, almost a third of total cost of lease already (27k).

3. I don't purchase this coverage. Also, you don't need to return with brand new tires, just passable 4/32. Exactly same for trade-in actually, you get dinged on value for every cosmetic or other issue, including worn tires. Also would you not fix scratches on car even if you own it? I would.

Also, people invest in PPF and other protections for car paint to last long time, no need with lease, money saved. Same with extended warranties people buy.

4. True for some situations, in my case I had more miles left close to the end and couldn't burn enough

I'd say this is the main hard blocker for leasing, high mileage (or very low mileage) needs - better purchase car outright.

5. Leasing adds timing issues. You can extend lease by up to 6 months on same terms if waiting for new model. Can get rid of lease on swapalese too.

6. See argument 3. Lease return criteria is very reasonable and similar to how many would keep the car (especially nice car) likely anyway.

7. 4-5 years would be advantage in less case for many situations. Don't forget maintenance costs, new tires/breaks/etc every X miles while owning car. I'm not even talking about unplanned repairs.

8. True! This benefit also worth some. Also gap insurance covers your losses. There was gentleman on M3 forum whose car got t-boned 1 month into lease, lost only 1 payment. Would have lost at least 10k if purchased (sales tax + difference between purchase cost and totalled payment from insurance).
On point 2. In NY you get to apply the sales tax you paid on the trade in value towards your next purchase. I purchased but I still wrestle with my decision every day. I laid out a lot of money up front but I feel like when I'm in a lease I'm to restricted. Bmws are the only card I ever cared to own more than 3 years. So I chose to purchase but I'm not saying I'm right. Lol
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      05-29-2019, 11:48 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by avd3k View Post
Great conversation!

1. True fact, although often offset by high residual numbers by BMW and higher lease credit/incentives.

2. You pay sales tax on whole amount (you can never get it back on trade, 10% tax in our state) and losing opportunity value of investing money. Less of concern for states with low sales tax. For my case of M3, sales tax on purchase would be 7k, almost a third of total cost of lease already (27k).

3. I don't purchase this coverage. Also, you don't need to return with brand new tires, just passable 4/32. Exactly same for trade-in actually, you get dinged on value for every cosmetic or other issue, including worn tires. Also would you not fix scratches on car even if you own it? I would.

Also, people invest in PPF and other protections for car paint to last long time, no need with lease, money saved. Same with extended warranties people buy.

4. True for some situations, in my case I had more miles left close to the end and couldn't burn enough

I'd say this is the main hard blocker for leasing, high mileage (or very low mileage) needs - better purchase car outright.

5. Leasing adds timing issues. You can extend lease by up to 6 months on same terms if waiting for new model. Can get rid of lease on swapalese too.

6. See argument 3. Lease return criteria is very reasonable and similar to how many would keep the car (especially nice car) likely anyway.

7. 4-5 years would be advantage in less case for many situations. Don't forget maintenance costs, new tires/breaks/etc every X miles while owning car. I'm not even talking about unplanned repairs.

8. This benefit also worth some. + gap insurance covers your losses in case car gets totaled. There was gentleman on M3 forum whose car got hit by another person 1 month into lease, lost only 1 payment. Would have lost at least 10-15k if purchased (sales tax + difference between purchase cost and totalled payment from insurance). How's that not smart financial decision with leasing?

For cars I leased, total cost ownership including depreciation and rest of above, by the time you trade it in, it ends up being more money sunk (lost) than with leasing. People put positive emotional feeling of owning, but at the end of the day it's about losing money over time in either case and minimizing total transaction regardless how it's called. It's not like owning appreciating asset e.g. house.

Indeed great conversation!!!

#1 High residual values / lease incentives can sometimes indeed make it look as a more appealing deal, however in my practical example of leasing vs buying X5 in Canada there's none, and interest rate is 1.5% higher

#2 Sales tax... oh trust me, if anyone should complain here about sales tax it's a guy from Canada paying 15% I still get it back though at trade in paying for the new car (New Car - Old Car)*Sales Tax which is equivalent of not paying it at lease time.

#3 Good arguments on lease return, but in general there are way more reasons to pick on your car condition during lease return where there are some strict documented guidelines than during trade in. So if any fees come up here, it's added lease cost. Extended warranties - if you get past your manufacturers warranty it's the same thing with lease, you are responsible for fixing everything. So just trade in after 4 years and you're all set in general. I keep cars for 4-5 years so taking a gamble during last year of ownership but always been fine... nock on wood

#4 Miles matter

#5 Extending lease / negotiating with the same dealer where you are going to obtain your next car - again they will have leverage over you because you will come back to them returning your leased car. Not saying it's going to happen, but they can hit you with some damages fees and there is not much you can do, it's all going to be by the book... tires are fraction below 4/32 or non OEM... scratch that can't be covered by the credit card etc.

#6 Nothing to say here, I think #5 addresses it...

#7 Tires / breaks costs will also apply to lease, so as unplanned maintenance, plus unexpected costs if you are out of warranty.

#8 Yes, if you get into an accident it's a very bad luck for your car ownership where resale value goes down the drain. Here I cannot disagree with you. It's a risk everyone who buys the car takes.


On the "investing money topic", you can also loose money you know

Pleasure talking to you!!!

Last edited by AustinV; 05-29-2019 at 12:42 PM..
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      05-29-2019, 01:43 PM   #137
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There is no one-size-fit-all blanket answer. I evaluate lease vs. buy for every car purchase individually, since lease pricing IS heavily dependent on how the numbers set for each model at any given moment.
With the right deal, lease can be financially much better than buying. Rule of thumb for good lease deal: no down payment and monthly payment less than 1% of MSRP (or LeaseHacker.com Score of > 10 years, meaning it would take > 10 years of payments to be equal to MSRP).
Specific own examples (3 years leases): 2016 535i 68k MSRP, total lease cost 23k. 2018 M3 ZCP 82k MSRP, total lease cost 27k. Some folks manage to get even better deals.
That said, some brands or models have absolutely terrible lease rates and should never be leased (e.g. M2). Current numbers for X5 are not bad, but not great either, so I might buy this time instead of lease.
At the end of the day, from _purely_ financial perspective buying BMW is terrible idea regardless how to do it
That's the mindset that causes people to fall into the lease trap. "I got a $60k car for $500/month. Such a good deal!" But ideally you want to not pay $500 for rent for a vehicle. Ideally you want to pay it off, or loan for 36 months or so and keep it for 5-8 years.
This is common misunderstanding. If you carefully read my post and do the math, If I keep the car for 5-8 years (or any other period in fact) I would lose way more than lease.
No you won't. Do you want to build some scenarios to discuss?
Absolutely, if you re-read my post, I gave 2 own personal examples already.

(fun fact: my first BMW actually was purchased until I learned more about BMW's lease deals/process thanks to this and other forums)
That's all the details you'll provide?
You refuse to read my post you are quoting.
I only see you bough a $68k car and paid $23k in the lease. So I'm asking if that's all you are providing as far as details.
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      05-29-2019, 04:13 PM   #138
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Great conversation!

1. True fact, although often offset by high residual numbers by BMW and higher lease credit/incentives.

2. You pay sales tax on whole amount (you can never get it back on trade, 10% tax in our state) and losing opportunity value of investing money. Less of concern for states with low sales tax. For my case of M3, sales tax on purchase would be 7k, almost a third of total cost of lease already (27k).

3. I don't purchase this coverage. Also, you don't need to return with brand new tires, just passable 4/32. Exactly same for trade-in actually, you get dinged on value for every cosmetic or other issue, including worn tires. Also would you not fix scratches on car even if you own it? I would.

Also, people invest in PPF and other protections for car paint to last long time, no need with lease, money saved. Same with extended warranties people buy.

4. True for some situations, in my case I had more miles left close to the end and couldn't burn enough

I'd say this is the main hard blocker for leasing, high mileage (or very low mileage) needs - better purchase car outright.

5. Leasing adds timing issues. You can extend lease by up to 6 months on same terms if waiting for new model. Can get rid of lease on swapalese too.

6. See argument 3. Lease return criteria is very reasonable and similar to how many would keep the car (especially nice car) likely anyway.

7. 4-5 years would be advantage in less case for many situations. Don't forget maintenance costs, new tires/breaks/etc every X miles while owning car. I'm not even talking about unplanned repairs.

8. This benefit also worth some. + gap insurance covers your losses in case car gets totaled. There was gentleman on M3 forum whose car got hit by another person 1 month into lease, lost only 1 payment. Would have lost at least 10-15k if purchased (sales tax + difference between purchase cost and totalled payment from insurance). How's that not smart financial decision with leasing?

For cars I leased, total cost ownership including depreciation and rest of above, by the time you trade it in, it ends up being more money sunk (lost) than with leasing. People put positive emotional feeling of owning, but at the end of the day it's about losing money over time in either case and minimizing total transaction regardless how it's called. It's not like owning appreciating asset e.g. house.

Indeed great conversation!!!

#1 High residual values / lease incentives can sometimes indeed make it look as a more appealing deal, however in my practical example of leasing vs buying X5 in Canada there's none, and interest rate is 1.5% higher

#2 Sales tax... oh trust me, if anyone should complain here about sales tax it's a guy from Canada paying 15% I still get it back though at trade in paying for the new car (New Car - Old Car)*Sales Tax which is equivalent of not paying it at lease time.

#3 Good arguments on lease return, but in general there are way more reasons to pick on your car condition during lease return where there are some strict documented guidelines than during trade in. So if any fees come up here, it's added lease cost. Extended warranties - if you get past your manufacturers warranty it's the same thing with lease, you are responsible for fixing everything. So just trade in after 4 years and you're all set in general. I keep cars for 4-5 years so taking a gamble during last year of ownership but always been fine... nock on wood

#4 Miles matter

#5 Extending lease / negotiating with the same dealer where you are going to obtain your next car - again they will have leverage over you because you will come back to them returning your leased car. Not saying it's going to happen, but they can hit you with some damages fees and there is not much you can do, it's all going to be by the book... tires are fraction below 4/32 or non OEM... scratch that can't be covered by the credit card etc.

#6 Nothing to say here, I think #5 addresses it...

#7 Tires / breaks costs will also apply to lease, so as unplanned maintenance, plus unexpected costs if you are out of warranty.

#8 Yes, if you get into an accident it's a very bad luck for your car ownership where resale value goes down the drain. Here I cannot disagree with you. It's a risk everyone who buys the car takes.


On the "investing money topic", you can also loose money you know

Pleasure talking to you!!!
It's entirely possible that lease rates in Canada are less aggressive than in USA, which might show the difference.

#2 You have to trade in car and dealers know that and offer less value too.

#3, #7 That's the point - your are never out of warranty and you avoid many services/replacements/repairs vs. keeping car for 5-8 years. (You only keep car for 3 years and then get brand new one)

#5 If you are running into very picky dealer, you can return to another dealer, but generally BMWFS is pretty lax as they want you to come back (note the same with bank leases, e.g USBank lease is pretty picky). Also, extending lease while waiting is directly with BMWFS, dealer not involved.
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      05-29-2019, 05:33 PM   #139
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I only see you bough a $68k car and paid $23k in the lease. So I'm asking if that's all you are providing as far as details.
Together with model and year (I provided) that should be enough to extrapolate the rest, but I can break it down here:

For hypothetical scenarios of owning car for 6 years:

- Lease
2 x 3year terms, 23k total per each = total 46k spent over 6 years, 0 equity "left".

- Finance
I had 8k discount and 10% sales tax.
Purchase cost: 60k + 6k tax + finance interest = conservatively I put it to 70k initially spent.

Over 6 years, I *very* conservatively put 4K maintenance costs (tires, brakes, some services).

Total: Spent 74k. (And this is best case scenario actually, no major repairs etc)

The value of the car after 6 years should be at least 28k to make it equal ( ! ) to lease cost and even more to make it better than lease. Realistically KBB puts it at 20k at best. KBB shows my trade-in value is 30k right now, at almost 3 years into lease. (Insane depreciation on 5 series)

So even in best case scenario I come out ahead by 8k with lease.
Even more if I would get unlucky with car being more repair prone.
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      05-29-2019, 07:23 PM   #140
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Sorry guys with my post earlier, didn't mean to offend on the depreciation factor of BMW's. I think the person who responded to my post on how SEDANS depreciate more is accurate. If you Google BMW X5 depreciation it doesn't score well but most articles are factoring in owning older X5's with redesigns like the 2019 hitting market so people getting good deals on older x5's. In any case, it seems like no matter how we slice and dice the buy vs lease its almost a lose lose, sort of. I've always bought my cars due to high mileage sales job. Now due to new tax law I get ZERO DEDUCTIONS on my car (I don't own my business). So much for considering a Land Rover (their claim to fame on deductions). I think in the end, the one person above is right. My dealer quoted me around $1300 month on a 25k 3 year lease deal. After factoring in downpayment and all after 3 years I've spent around $50k and left with nothing. If I re up and lease again for another 3 years now I'm clearly spending over $100k in 6 years for 2 new cars BUT, I don't have to deal with oil pans leaking and everything else. Hate to even say this here, at this kind of price point you almost wonder if its worth it to just buy an $85k Land Cruiser or Lexus and call it a day. Bullet proof. We shall see. Thanks guys. Cheers
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      05-29-2019, 08:47 PM   #141
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Penguino View Post
I only see you bough a $68k car and paid $23k in the lease. So I'm asking if that's all you are providing as far as details.
Together with model and year (I provided) that should be enough to extrapolate the rest, but I can break it down here:

For hypothetical scenarios of owning car for 6 years:

- Lease
2 x 3year terms, 23k total per each = total 46k spent over 6 years, 0 equity "left".

- Finance
I had 8k discount and 10% sales tax.
Purchase cost: 60k + 6k tax + finance interest = conservatively I put it to 70k initially spent.

Over 6 years, I *very* conservatively put 4K maintenance costs (tires, brakes, some services).

Total: Spent 74k. (And this is best case scenario actually, no major repairs etc)

The value of the car after 6 years should be at least 28k to make it equal ( ! ) to lease cost and even more to make it better than lease. Realistically KBB puts it at 20k at best. KBB shows my trade-in value is 30k right now, at almost 3 years into lease. (Insane depreciation on 5 series)

So even in best case scenario I come out ahead by 8k with lease.
Even more if I would get unlucky with car being more repair prone.
Thank you. I'll review and offer my insights tomorrow.
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      05-29-2019, 08:56 PM   #142
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I think the million dollar question really is, a 2019 or 2020 x5 6 years from now with approx 138k miles on it is worth how much? If I'm doing 23k miles per year x 6 years, if I jump into a 3 year lease now, then re up again in another 3 years, compared to just buying it now, whats the trade in value. Seems to me leasing over a 6 year period is gonna cost me a lot more out of pocket. I can calculate additional rough estimates on repairs, tires, etc. Because I'm a high mileage driver,I dunno if it makes sense. Then they throw in all this talk about just getting me out of a lease early if i want to get me into a new one. One salesman even said how I don't want to keep a BMW for longer than 4 years because he knows. When things go bad they go REALLY bad. Its not like a Lexus where if you need a new water pump it'll cost you $1500 and just be done with it. Why can't these German car companies just buy their parts from Toyota!!!!!!???? Its like if you need a new timing belt you need to take out a second mortgage. My eyes are glazing over. Its all just math and this is giving me a headache.

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      05-29-2019, 09:10 PM   #143
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I think the million dollar question really is, a 2019 or 2020 x5 6 years from now with approx 138k miles on it is worth how much? If I'm doing 23k miles per year x 6 years, if I jump into a 3 year lease now, then re up again in another 3 years, compared to just buying it now, whats the trade in value. Seems to me leasing over a 6 year period is gonna cost me a lot more out of pocket. I can calculate additional rough estimates on repairs, tires, etc. Because I'm a high mileage driver,I dunno if it makes sense. Then they throw in all this talk about just getting me out of a lease early if i want to get me into a new one. One salesman even said how I don't want to keep a BMW for longer than 4 years because he knows. When things go bad they go REALLY bad. Its not like a Lexus where if you need a new water pump it'll cost you $1500 and just be done with it. My eyes are glazing over. Its all just math and this is giving me a headache.


I've tried to stay away from this thread as it has gotten to be too subjective.

I'm interested now, because you have introduced a primary driver that determines which scenario is better (for the scenario);
time horizon.

This scenario is unique as it needs more assumptions; once past warranty what would be the upkeep/repair cost? This is a primary reason for many to lease - avoidance of liability.

I'm curious and interested in helping here; but do not have time to research all of the necessary assumptions. Let me know if you track down some useful data points.

Additionally, useful math that can be done here (and applicable per your outline of usage/miles driven) is; cost per mile.
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      05-29-2019, 10:39 PM   #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnbiker5 View Post
I think the million dollar question really is, a 2019 or 2020 x5 6 years from now with approx 138k miles on it is worth how much? If I'm doing 23k miles per year x 6 years, if I jump into a 3 year lease now, then re up again in another 3 years, compared to just buying it now, whats the trade in value. Seems to me leasing over a 6 year period is gonna cost me a lot more out of pocket. I can calculate additional rough estimates on repairs, tires, etc. Because I'm a high mileage driver,I dunno if it makes sense. Then they throw in all this talk about just getting me out of a lease early if i want to get me into a new one. One salesman even said how I don't want to keep a BMW for longer than 4 years because he knows. When things go bad they go REALLY bad. Its not like a Lexus where if you need a new water pump it'll cost you $1500 and just be done with it. Why can't these German car companies just buy their parts from Toyota!!!!!!???? Its like if you need a new timing belt you need to take out a second mortgage. My eyes are glazing over. Its all just math and this is giving me a headache.

When I first started this reply I typed - "I don't think there is any question that purchasing would be the way to go" but after running some numbers I'm not so sure it is that clear cut. While there should be a decent margin between the two whether it is enough to make up for service/maintenance costs and give you a level of comfort with the decisions and driving that high mileage vehicle would be a personal decision.

What I did was take my lease and changed it to be 15k, took off my MSDs and other incentives to gives us something to work with. My MSRP was about 76k and selling price almost 71k. Working with all of that, the lease will be about 1,075 a month and assuming you can get the same deal on the next lease it will total 77,400 before the mileage overage charge. Since you will be a total of 48k miles over that should cost 12k at 25 cents a mile but I think you may be able to get them for 20 cents before turn-in. You lease total would be 89,400.

Financing the 71k plus taxes and fees at 2.99% for 5 years will cost you about 81k.

For the trade-in value estimate I looked at the current trade-in value on Kelly Blue Book for a 2013 X5 with the 138k miles in good condition. I took the middle of the range and it worked out to being about 15% of the original MSRP. Applying that to this example it would mean the trade-in would be about 11,400.

I do not have a clue as to the service and maintenance costs but I'm sure others on here do.

So when comparing the two, the lease will cost you in the example 89,400 while the net pre-maintenance/service cost for purchasing will be 69,600. That would be about a $20k difference that could be applied to maintenance/service. One could thing though, they don't have timing belts so you don't have to worry about that.

Obviously there are a lot of assumptions in here and also probably things I missed. I'm just trying to give a general idea of the difference.
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      05-30-2019, 06:09 AM   #145
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[QUOTE=TurtleBoy;24848282]When I first started this reply I typed - "I don't think there is any question that purchasing would be the way to go" but after running some numbers I'm not so sure it is that clear cut. ...

For the trade-in value estimate I looked at the current trade-in value on Kelly Blue Book for a 2013 X5 with the 138k miles in good condition. I took the middle of the range and it worked out to being about 15% of the original MSRP. Applying that to this example it would mean the trade-in would be about 11,400.

So when comparing the two, the lease will cost you in the example 89,400 while the net pre-maintenance/service cost for purchasing will be 69,600. That would be about a $20k difference that could be applied to maintenance/service.
. . . . .
Your numbers align exactly with ours. My husband ran a net-present-value analysis of the balloon versus 60-month finance. If my Ira continues to earn 6% or more, I’m better off with the balloon. Below that, better off with traditional financing.

Currently it is earning 15% because of the crazy stock market and compounded earnings, but I know that is unlikely to last. And there also is the reality it could go DOWN in value if the markets crash and remain low for more than a few months.

I don’t have my car yet, but my plan is to trade in after fours years to keep a car under warranty. I’ll still owe about $12k on the loan, but the car should be worth at least $25k (it will probably have low mileage, but also won’t be garaged). So I will have $12k, or possibly more, toward a trade.

My next question is the wisdom of buying the maintenance add ons - I’ll start a new thread for that.
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      05-30-2019, 08:16 AM   #146
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Your numbers align exactly with ours. My husband ran a net-present-value analysis of the balloon versus 60-month finance. If my Ira continues to earn 6% or more, I’m better off with the balloon. Below that, better off with traditional financing.
Did he include the $2,000 credit you would lose with the balloon financing?
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      05-30-2019, 09:02 AM   #147
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Did he include the $2,000 credit you would lose with the balloon financing?
The car is priced with the incentives and I can choose any finance option I want. I still get the $2000 with balloon financing. It’s actually $2750 because I’m a new bmw owner. I’d lose that if I lease, presumably.
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      05-30-2019, 09:04 AM   #148
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The car is priced with the incentives and I can choose any finance option I want. I still get the $2000 with balloon financing. It’s actually $2750 because I’m a new bmw owner. I’d lose that if I lease, presumably.
Didn't realize that BMW offered the balloon financing. I thought you posted that the balloon financing was from a bank. The $2k credit is only available when you use BMW financing.
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      05-30-2019, 09:33 AM   #149
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Didn't realize that BMW offered the balloon financing. I thought you posted that the balloon financing was from a bank. The $2k credit is only available when you use BMW financing.
No the balloon financing is called “BMW Select.” The lowest rate for normal financing I could find online was 3.49% from Bank of America. I already have an account with them so they approved a loan for me right away.

The reason I did that was because BMW finance initially declined my credit app and then agreed to finance me if I put down $32k

I don’t really have any income - just what I take out of the IRA. Makes sense that they would decline me with little to no income, but it was still frustrating.

Turns out they hadn’t even looked at my credit score, which the dealer told me would have been an automatic approval. The dealer intervened and I was able to get any financing I want.

Mostly I wanted it for the $2,000 incentive. Which I got. What I don’t have yet is the f**kn car.

Last edited by natahoa; 05-30-2019 at 09:34 AM.. Reason: Typo
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      06-03-2019, 08:02 PM   #150
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Good forum. If you own your business you get the tax deductions under the new tax law. If you don't own your business and are in sales you don't get the auto deductions anymore.
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      06-04-2019, 07:31 AM   #151
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Didn't realize that BMW offered the balloon financing. I thought you posted that the balloon financing was from a bank. The $2k credit is only available when you use BMW financing.
Yes, the financing options available from BMW include the balloon loan, called “select”. You still get the rebate and 2.99% rate.

In my case I would have financed $65k. Payments $840 for five years then a $21k balloon. At that point the car would probably be worth about $23k.

So that leaves little equity for a trade - but I plan to trade at 4 years. Haven’t run the numbers, but doing that would provide maybe $9k for trade.

You can also pay it off at any time, just like the standard financing.

I decided on the 5-year standard financing. Payment will be $1,170 a month roughly. At four years payoff will be $13.8k and value should be about 45%. So at four years equity for a trade should be $15k or so.
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      06-05-2019, 08:46 PM   #152
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Anyone know when they start building the 2020 X5's? End of summer? I want to rest a little easier thinking maybe they got the kinks out of the first run. I also see Lexus just announced their re fresh on the RX. Nothing like throwing a wrench into this now. I still can't get over the price of the new X5's. Seems a little high for a car that will be bleeding oil once you hit 70k. What I still don't understand, why doesn't BMW buy their parts like valves and seals from Toyota/Lexus and then just build all the German tech around it. Who the heck do they get their parts from and then charge $70k for an X5 that explodes? I've literally gone through 2 BMW's and I swear someone in Germany presses a button once you hit a certain mileage and says "times up!" They're great when you drive out of the showrooms but wow....

Last edited by mtnbiker5; 06-05-2019 at 08:52 PM..
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      06-05-2019, 08:49 PM   #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnbiker5 View Post
Anyone know when they start building the 2020 X5's? End of summer? I want to rest a little easier thinking maybe they got the kinks out of the first run. I also see Lexus just announced their re fresh on the RX. Nothing like throwing a wrench into this now.
August is the first build but don't expect to rest easier, it will just be a different set of teething issues.
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      06-12-2019, 05:59 PM   #154
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True. I think thats what makes a BMW a BMW. Thanks guys. I'll be in line in september placing my order. Cheers.
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