[TXGrey]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

While that notion might be emotionally appealing, it's pretty wrong for a lot of very practical reasons:

(1.) The only strong, growing American auto company is ... Tesla
Just wait until GigaTexas is up and running, employing 1000s, supporting families, etc ... Texas gonna be Tesla country.

(2.) And either way, auto manufacturers are international
The US market is smaller than either China OR the EU individually and certainly smaller than them both combined. Auto companies aren't going to make one-off products for their smallest major market unless US consumers are willing to pay a large premium for them ... which will mean ICE will cost a lot more than an equivalent BEV. That might work for a Porsche 911, but not a Corolla.

(3.) Global supply chains
Speaking of niche products for small markets, as China and the EU stop buying ICE, ICE OEMs and suppliers will need to find new business (like supplying BEV parts) and ICE parts supply will start dry up - ICE costs will begin rising fast. Look at what happens to auto production (and prices!) when just microchips are in short supply!

(4.) Brain-Drain
Which employees want to work on that old tech dying product line? That means ICE vehicles will be designed & built by the C-team assuming any are built at all. Beyond hobby-jobby niche products like a 911 GTS, remotely affordable ICE cars ain't gonna be too appealing ...

(5.) Oh, right, ICE requires Gas Stations!
The gas-station-on-every-corner business model only works at scale; Target, Walmart, etc can't wait to get their hands on those convenience-store grocery stops and will provide free chargers to do it. And then there's Amazon with their grab-n-go just-walk-out payment tech and low cost delivery who'd love to buy up those well located properties. As gas station foot traffic drops many gas stations will struggle to stay afloat. Oh, and then there's gas prices themselves which'll start rising as volume falls because cracking, refining, and shipping fuel also requires scale to make sense. How many gasoline shortages will it take before the average american says fuck this, I'm getting a BEV? Let's face it: Max=1.

(6.) BONUS: ICE Repair, maintenance, & service costs
Yeah, so jiffy lube ... that'll get a bit harder to find and costs will move into the plumber-at-2am zone. Once you get the parts of course, which will be way harder to find and cost way more.


Will there still be ICE? Sure - there are still plenty of horses & carriages - but ICE will be more special use vehicles and/or rural; gas stations will be a lot farther away, and fuel will be a lot more expensive.

If there's one thing Americans fear more than anything else, it's being inconvenienced.

As ICE becomes more inconvenient Americans will definitely do their thing; which is do what's convenient.

All good points; and I don’t disagree with them. I wrote/answered quickly earlier… but I was really trying to point out is that the U.S. won’t follow their model of adoption and roll-out. The U.S. government isn’t going to regulate ICE cars out to pasture so quickly…. All of this will take time. As you pointed out, once the infrastructure changes for the “convenient”, then we will see the push happen. Until then, it’ll be ICE as the dominant force over here for awhile. We discussed this at large on another forum, and the stats are crazy. Teslas and EVs (in general) are still just a tiny portion of the American market (I thinks it’s currently around 2.5%). Time will certainly tell.

[thaalrasha]

Originally Posted by TXGrey

Simple. Because you can. I own a sports car too (for the weekends)… but driving around to work and such everyday with 20 inch BBS wheels and a low profile tire with tons of construction and pot holes will yield nothing but frustration and heavy repair bills. So why not drive a sporty CUV that can carry some speed and handle quite well, but has bigger side-walls and has more room for the kids and the dog. Best of both worlds.

Now, having said all that…. I 100% agree that a line should be drawn somewhere. Hence the reason I’m in an X4 right now instead of new Macan GTS. The GTS is great, but at the end of the day, it’s still my “practical” car and I don’t need it to break records or beat every other SUV on “The Ring”. Cost vs what you get has to intersect at some point for those of us who don’t have money trees in the backyard.

And I can attest to all of this because I’ve owned the opposite… three 4Runners in a row. Basically an indestructible SUV… bulletproof. But I live in a concrete jungle… once I tried a more road-oriented/sportier SUV, I was completely hooked. Have zero plans to go back to a non-sporty suv so long as I have options not to. Cars like the X4 and Macan make everyday life waaaay more fun and enjoyable behind the wheel… And you don’t have to worry a ton about accidentally hitting a pot-hole or two.

P.S. - this isn’t really the case with 21 inch wheels on my M40i, but hey, they look good.

Right I see what you mean and that makes sense. I think they still make sense up to M performance range (which honestly should be fast enough as you don't go on track with SUVs usually), however A full blown M SUV will induce more compromise on the comfort and would lose maybe the most important aspect of the fast comfortable practical car it's supposed to be.

[onfireX5]

Originally Posted by TXGrey

All good points; and I don’t disagree with them. I wrote/answered quickly earlier… but I was really trying to point out is that the U.S. won’t follow their model of adoption and roll-out. The U.S. government isn’t going to regulate ICE cars out to pasture so quickly…. All of this will take time. As you pointed out, once the infrastructure changes for the “convenient”, then we will see the push happen. Until then, it’ll be ICE as the dominant force over here for awhile. We discussed this at large on another forum, and the stats are crazy. Teslas and EVs (in general) are still just a tiny portion of the American market (I thinks it’s currently around 2.5%). Time will certainly tell.

Exactly. 2 to 2.5% now. If California and NY go through with their mandates, they will get an education on Grid limits. They are already bumping their limit now.....

Hopefully a few smart folks will appear at some point to lead the way.

[hybrid_eg]

This is why I like my model X dragster The tech is nice and all but other than that i can name a slew of negatives hence why i cannot see just having an electric car (for now).

The grid thing is definitely going to bite every state in the arse.. not sure how the gov is not regulating this better instead of just blindly passing mandates with some unrealistic goals when to eliminate ICE - just because the green idea sounds good. Most of these politicians do not even rely on proper research, i.e. amount of emissions it takes to produce EV's vs ice emissions).. besides that, most have "complete" disregard about enabling the grid first to support such insane "load" venture..(they must be thinking things will magically come together?).. you dont have to be an electrician or GC to figure this one out either.

[xcusem3]

Originally Posted by bjcarls

As a Trackhawk owner, it's fast, lots of fun, relatively low cost at $84k, especially compared to this group, BUT it rides likes a 1990's 1 ton pickup, has an interior of a $40k BMW, fit and finish of Jeep….and has large and really shitty brakes. It gets old and feels old.

Well it is based off an SUV that was designed in 2006…

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by onfireX5

they will get an education on Grid limits.

You mean like the education the US got on grid limits in the 60s & 70s with the widespread rollout of air conditioning? Cause the grid had zero problem with that; Mostly because businesses, incl utilities, enjoy massive expansions of sales.

That's like saying, "ZOMG, no WAY oil companies can handle a SUV expansion!"


The thing is, businesses hate uncertainty, and nobody more so than the finance and accounting department, but we shouldn't confuse a high project approval bar for an inability to approve infrastructure projects.

Have you ever tried to get a capital project approved at a large corporation? No?

Well, here's how a utility infrastructure project ask would go as things stand today:

▪️ You: "Hey finance, I'd like $100M in capital for a sweet infrastructure expansion for BEVs project"
▪️ Finance: "how do you know BEV sales will grow? How big is the market?"
▪️ You: "Well it's like 2% right now and ... I mean people will prolly buy more BEVs right?"
▪️ Finance: "Project rejected. Next!"

Versus

▪️ You: "We need $100M for infrastructure expansion due to a BEV sales CAGR of x% driven by state law mandating the new vehicle sales and driving our utilization by a CAGR of Y%. If we don't fund this project, at current growth rates demand will exceed capacity in 202x. With funding, project utilization revenues will grow by Z% in year 1 ramping to Q% in year 10."
▪️ Finance: "Approved. Next!"


TLDR:
Ain't no accounting fucker gonna approve utility infrastructure expansion capital based on current utilization growth due to BEVs ... but the diameter of finance's clenched sphincter shouldn't be mistaken for an inability drop a big steamy pile given a legislative taco bell run.

[Tenac]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

You mean like the education the US got on grid limits in the 60s & 70s with the widespread rollout of air conditioning? Cause the grid had zero problem with that; Mostly because businesses, incl utilities, enjoy massive expansions of sales.
.

Don't for get the one in 2021 in the North West and East!!! I have family on both ends and they often had brown outs and rolling black outs due to the load on the grid due to AC units.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by TXGrey

I was really trying to point out is that the U.S. won’t follow [the EU's] model of adoption and roll-out. The U.S. government isn’t going to regulate ICE cars out to pasture so quickly….

And my point was, it doesn't matter what the US wants or legislates:

Very soon, economies of scale and global sales will push auto manufacturers into BEV-first production lines, and once that happens there won't be many decent new ICE to buy, thus the US will transition whether they want to or not.

What if I'd made the following post in 2011:

In 10 years the World's fastest production vehicle will be powered by laptop batteries and beat, unmodified, almost every ICE available around the Nürburgring. Further, the cheapest laptop battery car you can buy from that brand will be $20,000 cheaper than my E9x M3 and smoke it. Also every reasonable member of this forum will agree we're at the dusk of ICE powered cars and laptop battery cars are the future.

Would anyone have agreed? And that's just 10 years ago!

Said differently, using your words, in just 10 years most people have gone from thinking laptop-battery cars are laughable to agreeing that even if ICE cars aren't going to pasture tomorrow, the pasture is at least near.

So the only question is, do you think BEV technology & the global adoption CAGR will happen SLOWER than the past 10 years, or faster?

(hint: "slower" is the wrong answer )

[LSM]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

And my point was, it doesn't matter what the US wants or legislates:

Very soon, economies of scale and global sales will push auto manufacturers into BEV-first production lines, and once that happens there won't be many decent new ICE to buy, thus the US will transition whether they want to or not.

What if I'd made the following post in 2011:

In 10 years the World's fastest production vehicle will be powered by laptop batteries and beat, unmodified, almost every ICE available around the Nürburgring. Further, the cheapest laptop battery car you can buy from that brand will be $20,000 cheaper than my E9x M3 and smoke it. Also every reasonable member of this forum will agree we're at the dusk of ICE powered cars and laptop battery cars are the future.

Would anyone have agreed? And that's just 10 years ago!

Said differently, using your words, in just 10 years most people have gone from thinking laptop-battery cars are laughable to agreeing that even if ICE cars aren't going to pasture tomorrow, the pasture is at least near.

So the only question is, do you think BEV technology & the global adoption CAGR will happen SLOWER than the past 10 years, or faster?

(hint: "slower" is the wrong answer )

There is other technology than just BEV which was promoted by an administration by giving huge fed tax benefits

Is BEV the best - not sure. I think Hydrogen fuel Cell and EFuel that works with ICE are plausible

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Tenac

Don't for get the one in 2021 in the North West and East!!! I have family on both ends and they often had brown outs and rolling black outs due to the load on the grid due to AC units.

LOL, didn't say the expansion wouldn't be messy

The thing is, grid expansion hits the walls of business uncertainty and climate politics.

California, for example, went 10 years between blackouts so there wasn't any good crisis to capitalize on, plus analysts fucked up the capacity calculations by assuming solar plants are 24/7, so they published false high capacity numbers ... normally that might've been a larger problem, but California shored up the capacity-demand-spike deficit by importing spare capacity from other states. That worked great until exporter states started limiting their spare capacity, and then the only choice for the engineers to protect the grid is to do controlled brownouts.

At a certain point - and we're pretty fucking close to that point - there'll be no choice but start funding new capacity, likely starting with more LFP Megapack installations at solar farms and ending with new generation capacity ... whether it be renewable or not.

China is going thorium salt nuke which is probably the safest best approach, therefore the one California won't pick.

[-Vanguard-]

Anyone else notice the BMW driver was about .25 seconds late on all 3 races and still caught up? He was last off the line each time. Imagine if it was being driven by Matt who mastered the 0-60 drag race by now lol.

[TXGrey]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

And my point was, it doesn't matter what the US wants or legislates:

Very soon, economies of scale and global sales will push auto manufacturers into BEV-first production lines, and once that happens there won't be many decent new ICE to buy, thus the US will transition whether they want to or not.

What if I'd made the following post in 2011:

In 10 years the World's fastest production vehicle will be powered by laptop batteries and beat, unmodified, almost every ICE available around the Nürburgring. Further, the cheapest laptop battery car you can buy from that brand will be $20,000 cheaper than my E9x M3 and smoke it. Also every reasonable member of this forum will agree we're at the dusk of ICE powered cars and laptop battery cars are the future.

Would anyone have agreed? And that's just 10 years ago!

Said differently, using your words, in just 10 years most people have gone from thinking laptop-battery cars are laughable to agreeing that even if ICE cars aren't going to pasture tomorrow, the pasture is at least near.

So the only question is, do you think BEV technology & the global adoption CAGR will happen SLOWER than the past 10 years, or faster?

(hint: "slower" is the wrong answer )

As I said… I'll take that bet.

[onfireX5]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

You mean like the education the US got on grid limits in the 60s & 70s with the widespread rollout of air conditioning? Cause the grid had zero problem with that; Mostly because businesses, incl utilities, enjoy massive expansions of sales.

That's like saying, "ZOMG, no WAY oil companies can handle a SUV expansion!"


The thing is, businesses hate uncertainty, and nobody more so than the finance and accounting department, but we shouldn't confuse a high project approval bar for an inability to approve infrastructure projects.

Have you ever tried to get a capital project approved at a large corporation? No?

Well, here's how a utility infrastructure project ask would go as things stand today:

▪️ You: "Hey finance, I'd like $100M in capital for a sweet infrastructure expansion for BEVs project"
▪️ Finance: "how do you know BEV sales will grow? How big is the market?"
▪️ You: "Well it's like 2% right now and ... I mean people will prolly buy more BEVs right?"
▪️ Finance: "Project rejected. Next!"

Versus

▪️ You: "We need $100M for infrastructure expansion due to a BEV sales CAGR of x% driven by state law mandating the new vehicle sales and driving our utilization by a CAGR of Y%. If we don't fund this project, at current growth rates demand will exceed capacity in 202x. With funding, project utilization revenues will grow by Z% in year 1 ramping to Q% in year 10."
▪️ Finance: "Approved. Next!"


TLDR:
Ain't no accounting fucker gonna approve utility infrastructure expansion capital based on current utilization growth due to BEVs ... but the diameter of finance's clenched sphincter shouldn't be mistaken for an inability drop a big steamy pile given a legislative taco bell run.

"You mean like the education the US got on grid limits in the 60s & 70s with the widespread rollout of air conditioning? Cause the grid had zero problem with that;
Mostly because businesses, incl utilities, enjoy massive expansions of sales."

No, I "mean like" some of the current rolling black out issues California has had to deal with in 2021 at their current Grid level....whilst purchasing electricity from out of their state since they can not currently supply their demand..

That kinda stuff...

But, you know....

[daddymalu]

In my opinion ice EV cars will take over, but ICE cars will still be available. Everyone will still be able to get an ICE car at a much higher cost, similar to watches. Everyone will have a smart or quartz as they tell time very well amongst other things, but there are plenty of people with Rolex, AP or Patek.

[Too__Hu///Mble]

Originally Posted by FCX5

The Porsche GT is impressive to say the least, but is a limited run model! The Urus needs an update badly…the Model X and Track Hawk, I believe are no longer being sold. So the X6M of this group is the fastest that you can buy from a dealer right now…

The OG, this video makes me proud.

I am an owner of the 1 GENERATION X6M.

what marvels me is the fact that BMW debut this segment and a decade later after seeing a company do it first still can't beat them.

That is fascinating to me.

My reasoning is the patented technology on the Hot V design of the turbos and the sleeping design of the S63 block.

I have over 100K of driving miles in the X6M. It's as if BMW said we simply cannot lose our dynamics within this segment.

With that being said, once the M Division crowned the X6 with a M we should of known the rest was history.

Simply the best overall and most versatile vehicle to own.

PERIOD.

Once you've owned one you'll understand all the nuances of this amazing car.

Let this sink in. I have the first gen X6M and my palette for a car is still quenched because I know the 1st gen is a walking museum of M lineage.

Thank You, BMW!

[x622]

Originally Posted by Chicane_

Have my order in as well

I have a 21 x5m and have the option to snatch a 22 in goodwood green... I can change everything else about the order other than the color. Considering a Java Green RSQ8 though.

This would just be a second car that I keep in another state as the daily there. What steered you towards the GT? I got to ride in one and liked it, but the plastic trim around the body looks like shit on a $200k car.

[Aimster82]

Originally Posted by FCX5

A colleague at work has a the new Model S Plaid. The interior is actually superb. He also has a pretty new, quote loaded BMW 750i and prefers the new S Plaid (says it's the best car he's ever owned). I got to sit in and go for a short drive and the seats are very comfortable and the interior is great unless one needs real leather and such.

Personally, I'd take an M5CS. Tesla would sell a lot of Plaids if they didn't come with the awkward Yoke. The fit and finish on the one I sat in wasn't an issue and the ride is also much better than one would expect…but I prefer some sound and like the M5 CS interior A LOT!

No one will sell a Cayenne GT for a model X

agree 100%